Bundesliga · Gameweek 6
Werder Bremen vs Paderborn Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Werder Bremen 44.8%
Prediction probabilities
Werder Bremen vs Paderborn: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 55.6% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 50.2% in the model.
Werder Bremen are 7th on 8 points after 5 matches; Paderborn are 15th on 4. In their last 5 league matches Werder Bremen won 2 and Paderborn won 1.
Home and away form
Werder Bremen at home
5 played · 3W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Augsburg · 3–2 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · RB Leipzig · 3–1 (W)
- 16 May 2026 · Borussia Dortmund · 0–2 (L)
- 2 May 2026 · Augsburg · 1–3 (L)
- 18 Apr 2026 · Hamburg · 3–1 (W)
Paderborn away
2 played · 0W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 0.0 scored · 1.5 conceded
Results in this sample
- 12 Sept 2026 · Borussia Dortmund · 0–3 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Mainz · 0–0 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44.4%Under 55.6%
- Both teams score
- 49.8%No 50.2%
- Predicted goals
- 1.42 – 1.03Total 2.45 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 36% · 24%Werder Bremen · Paderborn
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71.3% | 28.8% |
| 2.5 | 44.4% | 55.6% |
| 3.5 | 23.2% | 76.8% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Werder Bremen to score 1.42 goals and Paderborn 1.03. Its ratings have Werder Bremen scoring at 0.93 times the model's Bundesliga average and conceding at 1.03 times, against 0.75 and 0.91 for Paderborn. How the model works.
Questions about Werder Bremen vs Paderborn
Who is the favourite in Werder Bremen vs Paderborn?
Our model's most likely result is Werder Bremen win at 44.8%. Full probabilities: Werder Bremen 44.8%, draw 28.7%, Paderborn 26.5%.
What is the most likely score in Werder Bremen vs Paderborn?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.6%. The model expects 1.42 goals for Werder Bremen and 1.03 for Paderborn.
Will Werder Bremen vs Paderborn have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 44.4% and both teams to score 49.8%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 1,881
- Model version
- dc-v4-ba6c83c1eccd
- Data source
- Finished Bundesliga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.