Bundesliga · Gameweek 6
Elversberg vs Augsburg Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Elversberg 50.0%
Prediction probabilities
Elversberg vs Augsburg: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 57.3% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 59.1% in the model.
Elversberg are 9th on 7 points after 5 matches; Augsburg are 6th on 8. In their last 5 league matches Elversberg won 2 and Augsburg won 2.
Home and away form
Elversberg at home
2 played · 1W · 0D · 1L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 13 Sept 2026 · Bayern Munich · 1–2 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Bayer Leverkusen · 3–2 (W)
Augsburg away
5 played · 3W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 2.2 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Werder Bremen · 2–3 (L)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Eintracht Frankfurt · 4–1 (W)
- 16 May 2026 · Union Berlin · 0–4 (L)
- 2 May 2026 · Werder Bremen · 3–1 (W)
- 18 Apr 2026 · Bayer Leverkusen · 2–1 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57.3%Under 42.7%
- Both teams score
- 59.1%No 40.9%
- Predicted goals
- 1.78 – 1.20Total 2.98 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 30% · 17%Elversberg · Augsburg
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80.7% | 19.3% |
| 2.5 | 57.3% | 42.7% |
| 3.5 | 34.9% | 65.1% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Elversberg to score 1.78 goals and Augsburg 1.20. Its ratings have Elversberg scoring at 1.07 times the model's Bundesliga average and conceding at 0.95 times, against 0.95 and 0.99 for Augsburg. How the model works.
Questions about Elversberg vs Augsburg
Who is the favourite in Elversberg vs Augsburg?
Our model's most likely result is Elversberg win at 50.0%. Full probabilities: Elversberg 50.0%, draw 25.0%, Augsburg 25.0%.
What is the most likely score in Elversberg vs Augsburg?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.7%. The model expects 1.78 goals for Elversberg and 1.20 for Augsburg.
Will Elversberg vs Augsburg have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 57.3% and both teams to score 59.1%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 1,881
- Model version
- dc-v4-ba6c83c1eccd
- Data source
- Finished Bundesliga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.