Bundesliga · Gameweek 6
Schalke vs Mainz Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Mainz 36.9%
Prediction probabilities
Schalke vs Mainz: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 52.5% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 53.4% in the model.
Schalke are 13th on 5 points after 5 matches; Mainz are 8th on 7. In 4 Bundesliga meetings since 2020-21, Schalke won 2, Mainz won 0 and 2 were drawn. They last met on 5 May 2023: Mainz 2–3 Schalke. In their last 5 league matches Schalke won 1 and Mainz won 2.
Home and away form
Schalke at home
2 played · 0W · 2D · 0L
Goals per match: 0.0 scored · 0.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · Elversberg · 0–0 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Bayern Munich · 0–0 (D)
Mainz away
5 played · 4W · 1D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.8 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Borussia Monchengladbach · 4–3 (W)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Hamburg · 5–0 (W)
- 16 May 2026 · Heidenheim · 2–0 (W)
- 3 May 2026 · St Pauli · 2–1 (W)
- 19 Apr 2026 · Borussia Monchengladbach · 1–1 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47.5%Under 52.5%
- Both teams score
- 53.4%No 46.6%
- Predicted goals
- 1.26 – 1.31Total 2.58 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 27% · 28%Schalke · Mainz
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73.8% | 26.2% |
| 2.5 | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| 3.5 | 25.9% | 74.1% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Schalke to score 1.26 goals and Mainz 1.31. Its ratings have Schalke scoring at 0.81 times the model's Bundesliga average and conceding at 0.96 times, against 1.03 and 0.93 for Mainz. How the model works.
Questions about Schalke vs Mainz
Who is the favourite in Schalke vs Mainz?
Our model's most likely result is Mainz win at 36.9%. Full probabilities: Schalke 34.6%, draw 28.5%, Mainz 36.9%.
What is the most likely score in Schalke vs Mainz?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.6%. The model expects 1.26 goals for Schalke and 1.31 for Mainz.
Will Schalke vs Mainz have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 47.5% and both teams to score 53.4%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 1,881
- Model version
- dc-v4-ba6c83c1eccd
- Data source
- Finished Bundesliga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.