Bundesliga · Gameweek 6
Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Bayer Leverkusen 60.5%
Prediction probabilities
Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 66.2% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 62.5% in the model.
Bayer Leverkusen are 4th on 10 points after 5 matches; Freiburg are 1st on 13. In 12 Bundesliga meetings since 2020-21, Bayer Leverkusen won 6, Freiburg won 3 and 3 were drawn. They last met on 7 Mar 2026: Freiburg 3–3 Bayer Leverkusen. In their last 5 league matches Bayer Leverkusen won 3 and Freiburg won 4.
Home and away form
Bayer Leverkusen at home
5 played · 3W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 2.4 scored · 0.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · RB Leipzig · 2–0 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Union Berlin · 4–0 (W)
- 16 May 2026 · Hamburg · 1–1 (D)
- 2 May 2026 · RB Leipzig · 4–1 (W)
- 18 Apr 2026 · Augsburg · 1–2 (L)
Freiburg away
4 played · 1W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.3 scored · 2.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Eintracht Frankfurt · 2–2 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Paderborn · 1–0 (W)
- 10 May 2026 · Hamburg · 2–3 (L)
- 26 Apr 2026 · Borussia Dortmund · 0–4 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66.2%Under 33.8%
- Both teams score
- 62.5%No 37.5%
- Predicted goals
- 2.23 – 1.18Total 3.41 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 31% · 11%Bayer Leverkusen · Freiburg
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86.1% | 13.9% |
| 2.5 | 66.2% | 33.8% |
| 3.5 | 44.4% | 55.6% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Bayer Leverkusen to score 2.23 goals and Freiburg 1.18. Its ratings have Bayer Leverkusen scoring at 1.41 times the model's Bundesliga average and conceding at 0.82 times, against 1.08 and 0.95 for Freiburg. How the model works.
Questions about Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg
Who is the favourite in Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg?
Our model's most likely result is Bayer Leverkusen win at 60.5%. Full probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 60.5%, draw 21.1%, Freiburg 18.4%.
What is the most likely score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg?
2–1 is the single most likely score at 9.7%. The model expects 2.23 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.18 for Freiburg.
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 66.2% and both teams to score 62.5%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 1,881
- Model version
- dc-v4-ba6c83c1eccd
- Data source
- Finished Bundesliga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.