Bundesliga · Gameweek 7
Mainz vs Werder Bremen Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Mainz 50.5%
Prediction probabilities
Mainz vs Werder Bremen: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 55.9% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 57.7% in the model.
Mainz are 8th on 7 points after 5 matches; Werder Bremen are 7th on 8. In 10 Bundesliga meetings since 2020-21, Mainz won 3, Werder Bremen won 5 and 2 were drawn. They last met on 15 Mar 2026: Werder Bremen 0–2 Mainz. In their last 5 league matches Mainz won 2 and Werder Bremen won 2.
Home and away form
Mainz at home
5 played · 0W · 1D · 4L
Goals per match: 1.6 scored · 2.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Bayer Leverkusen · 3–4 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Eintracht Frankfurt · 1–3 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Paderborn · 0–0 (D)
- 10 May 2026 · Union Berlin · 1–3 (L)
- 25 Apr 2026 · Bayern Munich · 3–4 (L)
Werder Bremen away
5 played · 0W · 3D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 9 Oct 2026 · Borussia Dortmund · 2–2 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Fc Cologne · 1–1 (D)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Freiburg · 1–4 (L)
- 9 May 2026 · Hoffenheim · 0–1 (L)
- 26 Apr 2026 · Stuttgart · 1–1 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55.9%Under 44.1%
- Both teams score
- 57.7%No 42.3%
- Predicted goals
- 1.76 – 1.16Total 2.92 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 31% · 17%Mainz · Werder Bremen
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79.7% | 20.3% |
| 2.5 | 55.9% | 44.1% |
| 3.5 | 33.5% | 66.5% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Mainz to score 1.76 goals and Werder Bremen 1.16. Its ratings have Mainz scoring at 1.03 times the model's Bundesliga average and conceding at 0.93 times, against 0.93 and 1.03 for Werder Bremen. How the model works.
Questions about Mainz vs Werder Bremen
Who is the favourite in Mainz vs Werder Bremen?
Our model's most likely result is Mainz win at 50.5%. Full probabilities: Mainz 50.5%, draw 25.2%, Werder Bremen 24.3%.
What is the most likely score in Mainz vs Werder Bremen?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.9%. The model expects 1.76 goals for Mainz and 1.16 for Werder Bremen.
Will Mainz vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 55.9% and both teams to score 57.7%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 1,881
- Model version
- dc-v4-ba6c83c1eccd
- Data source
- Finished Bundesliga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.