Bundesliga · Gameweek 7
FC Cologne vs Schalke Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: FC Cologne 42.9%
Prediction probabilities
FC Cologne vs Schalke: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 50.1% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 54.7% in the model.
FC Cologne are 10th on 7 points after 5 matches; Schalke are 13th on 5. In 4 Bundesliga meetings since 2020-21, FC Cologne won 3, Schalke won 0 and 1 was drawn. They last met on 29 Jan 2023: Schalke 0–0 FC Cologne. In their last 5 league matches FC Cologne won 2 and Schalke won 1.
Home and away form
FC Cologne at home
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.6 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 11 Oct 2026 · Borussia Monchengladbach · 2–1 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Werder Bremen · 1–1 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Hoffenheim · 3–2 (W)
- 10 May 2026 · Heidenheim · 1–3 (L)
- 25 Apr 2026 · Bayer Leverkusen · 1–2 (L)
Schalke away
3 played · 1W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.3 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 11 Oct 2026 · Freiburg · 1–2 (L)
- 11 Sept 2026 · Union Berlin · 3–1 (W)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Augsburg · 0–3 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49.9%Under 50.1%
- Both teams score
- 54.7%No 45.3%
- Predicted goals
- 1.48 – 1.19Total 2.67 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 30% · 23%FC Cologne · Schalke
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75.6% | 24.4% |
| 2.5 | 49.9% | 50.1% |
| 3.5 | 28.0% | 72.0% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects FC Cologne to score 1.48 goals and Schalke 1.19. Its ratings have FC Cologne scoring at 0.93 times the model's Bundesliga average and conceding at 1.10 times, against 0.81 and 0.96 for Schalke. How the model works.
Questions about FC Cologne vs Schalke
Who is the favourite in FC Cologne vs Schalke?
Our model's most likely result is FC Cologne win at 42.9%. Full probabilities: FC Cologne 42.9%, draw 27.6%, Schalke 29.5%.
What is the most likely score in FC Cologne vs Schalke?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.2%. The model expects 1.48 goals for FC Cologne and 1.19 for Schalke.
Will FC Cologne vs Schalke have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 49.9% and both teams to score 54.7%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 1,881
- Model version
- dc-v4-ba6c83c1eccd
- Data source
- Finished Bundesliga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.