Bundesliga · Gameweek 7
RB Leipzig vs Elversberg Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: RB Leipzig 56.7%
Prediction probabilities
RB Leipzig vs Elversberg: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 63.0% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 61.4% in the model.
RB Leipzig are 5th on 9 points after 5 matches; Elversberg are 9th on 7. In their last 5 league matches RB Leipzig won 3 and Elversberg won 2.
Home and away form
RB Leipzig at home
5 played · 5W · 0D · 0L
Goals per match: 3.8 scored · 0.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Eintracht Frankfurt · 6–0 (W)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Hamburg · 5–0 (W)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Borussia Monchengladbach · 3–0 (W)
- 9 May 2026 · St Pauli · 2–1 (W)
- 24 Apr 2026 · Union Berlin · 3–1 (W)
Elversberg away
3 played · 1W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.3 scored · 1.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Union Berlin · 0–1 (L)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Schalke · 0–0 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Borussia Monchengladbach · 4–3 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63.0%Under 37.0%
- Both teams score
- 61.4%No 38.6%
- Predicted goals
- 2.06 – 1.19Total 3.25 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 31% · 13%RB Leipzig · Elversberg
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84.2% | 15.8% |
| 2.5 | 63.0% | 37.0% |
| 3.5 | 40.8% | 59.3% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects RB Leipzig to score 2.06 goals and Elversberg 1.19. Its ratings have RB Leipzig scoring at 1.31 times the model's Bundesliga average and conceding at 0.83 times, against 1.07 and 0.95 for Elversberg. How the model works.
Questions about RB Leipzig vs Elversberg
Who is the favourite in RB Leipzig vs Elversberg?
Our model's most likely result is RB Leipzig win at 56.7%. Full probabilities: RB Leipzig 56.7%, draw 22.6%, Elversberg 20.7%.
What is the most likely score in RB Leipzig vs Elversberg?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 10.3%. The model expects 2.06 goals for RB Leipzig and 1.19 for Elversberg.
Will RB Leipzig vs Elversberg have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 63.0% and both teams to score 61.4%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 1,881
- Model version
- dc-v4-ba6c83c1eccd
- Data source
- Finished Bundesliga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.