Bundesliga · Gameweek 7
Paderborn vs Hamburg Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Paderborn 43.3%
Prediction probabilities
Paderborn vs Hamburg: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 57.1% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 51.0% in the model.
Paderborn are 15th on 4 points after 5 matches; Hamburg are 12th on 6. In their last 5 league matches Paderborn won 1 and Hamburg won 2.
Home and away form
Paderborn at home
3 played · 1W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 1.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Stuttgart · 0–2 (L)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Hoffenheim · 3–1 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Freiburg · 0–1 (L)
Hamburg away
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 2.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Hoffenheim · 3–2 (W)
- 13 Sept 2026 · RB Leipzig · 0–5 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Borussia Dortmund · 0–2 (L)
- 16 May 2026 · Bayer Leverkusen · 1–1 (D)
- 2 May 2026 · Eintracht Frankfurt · 2–1 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42.9%Under 57.1%
- Both teams score
- 49.0%No 51.0%
- Predicted goals
- 1.36 – 1.03Total 2.40 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 36% · 26%Paderborn · Hamburg
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70.1% | 29.9% |
| 2.5 | 42.9% | 57.1% |
| 3.5 | 22.0% | 78.0% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Paderborn to score 1.36 goals and Hamburg 1.03. Its ratings have Paderborn scoring at 0.75 times the model's Bundesliga average and conceding at 0.91 times, against 0.85 and 1.08 for Hamburg. How the model works.
Questions about Paderborn vs Hamburg
Who is the favourite in Paderborn vs Hamburg?
Our model's most likely result is Paderborn win at 43.3%. Full probabilities: Paderborn 43.3%, draw 29.3%, Hamburg 27.4%.
What is the most likely score in Paderborn vs Hamburg?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.8%. The model expects 1.36 goals for Paderborn and 1.03 for Hamburg.
Will Paderborn vs Hamburg have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 42.9% and both teams to score 49.0%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 1,881
- Model version
- dc-v4-ba6c83c1eccd
- Data source
- Finished Bundesliga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.