Bundesliga · Gameweek 7
Augsburg vs Union Berlin Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Augsburg 49.1%
Prediction probabilities
Augsburg vs Union Berlin: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 52.3% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 55.3% in the model.
Augsburg are 6th on 8 points after 5 matches; Union Berlin are 16th on 4. In 12 Bundesliga meetings since 2020-21, Augsburg won 6, Union Berlin won 2 and 4 were drawn. They last met on 16 May 2026: Union Berlin 4–0 Augsburg. In their last 5 league matches Augsburg won 2 and Union Berlin won 1.
Home and away form
Augsburg at home
5 played · 2W · 3D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.2 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Bayern Munich · 2–2 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Bayer Leverkusen · 2–2 (D)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Schalke · 3–0 (W)
- 9 May 2026 · Borussia Monchengladbach · 3–1 (W)
- 25 Apr 2026 · Eintracht Frankfurt · 1–1 (D)
Union Berlin away
4 played · 1W · 0D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 3.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 18 Sept 2026 · Bayern Munich · 0–7 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Bayer Leverkusen · 0–4 (L)
- 10 May 2026 · Mainz · 3–1 (W)
- 24 Apr 2026 · RB Leipzig · 1–3 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52.3%Under 47.7%
- Both teams score
- 55.3%No 44.7%
- Predicted goals
- 1.66 – 1.11Total 2.77 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 33% · 19%Augsburg · Union Berlin
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77.3% | 22.7% |
| 2.5 | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| 3.5 | 30.1% | 69.8% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Augsburg to score 1.66 goals and Union Berlin 1.11. Its ratings have Augsburg scoring at 0.95 times the model's Bundesliga average and conceding at 0.99 times, against 0.84 and 1.04 for Union Berlin. How the model works.
Questions about Augsburg vs Union Berlin
Who is the favourite in Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
Our model's most likely result is Augsburg win at 49.1%. Full probabilities: Augsburg 49.1%, draw 26.2%, Union Berlin 24.7%.
What is the most likely score in Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.5%. The model expects 1.66 goals for Augsburg and 1.11 for Union Berlin.
Will Augsburg vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 52.3% and both teams to score 55.3%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 1,881
- Model version
- dc-v4-ba6c83c1eccd
- Data source
- Finished Bundesliga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.