Bundesliga · Gameweek 7
Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Bayer Leverkusen 48.9%
Prediction probabilities
Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 71.1% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 70.4% in the model.
Hoffenheim are 17th on 3 points after 5 matches; Bayer Leverkusen are 4th on 10. In 12 Bundesliga meetings since 2020-21, Hoffenheim won 3, Bayer Leverkusen won 7 and 2 were drawn. They last met on 17 Jan 2026: Hoffenheim 1–0 Bayer Leverkusen. In their last 5 league matches Hoffenheim won 1 and Bayer Leverkusen won 3.
Home and away form
Hoffenheim at home
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Hamburg · 2–3 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Stuttgart · 2–1 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Borussia Dortmund · 2–3 (L)
- 9 May 2026 · Werder Bremen · 1–0 (W)
- 2 May 2026 · Stuttgart · 3–3 (D)
Bayer Leverkusen away
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 2.2 scored · 2.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Mainz · 4–3 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Augsburg · 2–2 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Elversberg · 2–3 (L)
- 9 May 2026 · Stuttgart · 1–3 (L)
- 25 Apr 2026 · Fc Cologne · 2–1 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 71.1%Under 28.9%
- Both teams score
- 70.4%No 29.6%
- Predicted goals
- 1.59 – 2.09Total 3.68 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 12% · 20%Hoffenheim · Bayer Leverkusen
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88.8% | 11.2% |
| 2.5 | 71.1% | 28.9% |
| 3.5 | 50.1% | 49.9% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Hoffenheim to score 1.59 goals and Bayer Leverkusen 2.09. Its ratings have Hoffenheim scoring at 1.16 times the model's Bundesliga average and conceding at 1.11 times, against 1.41 and 0.82 for Bayer Leverkusen. How the model works.
Questions about Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen
Who is the favourite in Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model's most likely result is Bayer Leverkusen win at 48.9%. Full probabilities: Hoffenheim 28.7%, draw 22.4%, Bayer Leverkusen 48.9%.
What is the most likely score in Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 9.1%. The model expects 1.59 goals for Hoffenheim and 2.09 for Bayer Leverkusen.
Will Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 71.1% and both teams to score 70.4%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 1,881
- Model version
- dc-v4-ba6c83c1eccd
- Data source
- Finished Bundesliga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.