Bundesliga · Gameweek 7
Freiburg vs Bayern Munich Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Bayern Munich 64.7%
Prediction probabilities
Freiburg vs Bayern Munich: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 74.6% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 67.8% in the model.
Freiburg are 1st on 13 points after 5 matches; Bayern Munich are 3rd on 11. In 12 Bundesliga meetings since 2020-21, Freiburg won 0, Bayern Munich won 10 and 2 were drawn. They last met on 4 Apr 2026: Freiburg 2–3 Bayern Munich. In their last 5 league matches Freiburg won 4 and Bayern Munich won 3.
Home and away form
Freiburg at home
5 played · 4W · 1D · 0L
Goals per match: 3.2 scored · 0.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 11 Oct 2026 · Schalke · 2–1 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Borussia Monchengladbach · 5–0 (W)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Werder Bremen · 4–1 (W)
- 16 May 2026 · RB Leipzig · 4–1 (W)
- 3 May 2026 · Wolfsburg · 1–1 (D)
Bayern Munich away
5 played · 3W · 2D · 0L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Augsburg · 2–2 (D)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Elversberg · 2–1 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Schalke · 0–0 (D)
- 9 May 2026 · Wolfsburg · 1–0 (W)
- 25 Apr 2026 · Mainz · 4–3 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 74.6%Under 25.4%
- Both teams score
- 67.8%No 32.1%
- Predicted goals
- 1.30 – 2.59Total 3.89 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 7% · 27%Freiburg · Bayern Munich
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90.6% | 9.4% |
| 2.5 | 74.6% | 25.4% |
| 3.5 | 54.5% | 45.5% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Freiburg to score 1.30 goals and Bayern Munich 2.59. Its ratings have Freiburg scoring at 1.08 times the model's Bundesliga average and conceding at 0.95 times, against 2.05 and 0.72 for Bayern Munich. How the model works.
Questions about Freiburg vs Bayern Munich
Who is the favourite in Freiburg vs Bayern Munich?
Our model's most likely result is Bayern Munich win at 64.7%. Full probabilities: Freiburg 16.8%, draw 18.5%, Bayern Munich 64.7%.
What is the most likely score in Freiburg vs Bayern Munich?
1–2 is the single most likely score at 8.9%. The model expects 1.30 goals for Freiburg and 2.59 for Bayern Munich.
Will Freiburg vs Bayern Munich have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 74.6% and both teams to score 67.8%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 1,881
- Model version
- dc-v4-ba6c83c1eccd
- Data source
- Finished Bundesliga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.