Bundesliga · Gameweek 8
Elversberg vs Mainz Prediction
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Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Elversberg 45.4%
Our Bundesliga record: the most likely result happened in 1 of 1 predictions (100%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Elversberg vs Mainz: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 56.9% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 59.8% in the model.
Elversberg are 10th on 7 points after 5 matches; Mainz are 9th on 7. In their last 5 league matches Elversberg won 2 and Mainz won 2.
Home and away form
Elversberg at home
2 played · 1W · 0D · 1L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 13 Sept 2026 · Bayern Munich · 1–2 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Bayer Leverkusen · 3–2 (W)
Mainz away
5 played · 4W · 1D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.8 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Borussia Monchengladbach · 4–3 (W)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Hamburg · 5–0 (W)
- 16 May 2026 · Heidenheim · 2–0 (W)
- 3 May 2026 · St Pauli · 2–1 (W)
- 19 Apr 2026 · Borussia Monchengladbach · 1–1 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Elversberg vs Mainz: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56.9%Under 43.1%
- Both teams score
- 59.8%No 40.2%
- Predicted goals
- 1.67 – 1.30Total 2.97 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 27% · 19%Elversberg · Mainz
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80.4% | 1/4 | 19.6% | 4/1 |
| 2.5 | 56.9% | 8/11 | 43.1% | 11/8 |
| 3.5 | 34.5% | 15/8 | 65.5% | 8/15 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Elversberg to score 1.67 goals and Mainz 1.30. Its ratings have Elversberg scoring at 1.08 times the model's Bundesliga average and conceding at 0.95 times, against 1.03 and 0.93 for Mainz. How the model works.
Questions about Elversberg vs Mainz
Who is the favourite in Elversberg vs Mainz?
Our model's most likely result is Elversberg win at 45.4%. Full probabilities: Elversberg 45.4%, draw 25.6%, Mainz 29.0%.
What is the most likely score in Elversberg vs Mainz?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.0%. The model expects 1.67 goals for Elversberg and 1.30 for Mainz.
Will Elversberg vs Mainz have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 56.9% and both teams to score 59.8%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-17
- Matches used
- 3,646
- Model version
- dc-v4-107a63067070
- Data source
- Finished Bundesliga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.