Bundesliga · Gameweek 8
Borussia Monchengladbach vs Paderborn Prediction
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Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Borussia Monchengladbach 45.3%
Our Bundesliga record: the most likely result happened in 4 of 7 predictions (57%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Borussia Monchengladbach vs Paderborn: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 51.7% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 55.6% in the model.
Borussia Monchengladbach are 18th on 0 points after 5 matches; Paderborn are 15th on 5. In their last 5 league matches Borussia Monchengladbach won 0 and Paderborn won 1.
Home and away form
Borussia Monchengladbach at home
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 2.4 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Mainz · 3–4 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Elversberg · 3–4 (L)
- 16 May 2026 · Hoffenheim · 4–0 (W)
- 3 May 2026 · Borussia Dortmund · 1–0 (W)
- 19 Apr 2026 · Mainz · 1–1 (D)
Paderborn away
3 played · 0W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 0.7 scored · 1.7 conceded
Results in this sample
- 17 Oct 2026 · Werder Bremen · 2–2 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Borussia Dortmund · 0–3 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Mainz · 0–0 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Borussia Monchengladbach vs Paderborn: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51.7%Under 48.3%
- Both teams score
- 55.6%No 44.4%
- Predicted goals
- 1.56 – 1.18Total 2.74 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 31% · 21%Borussia Monchengladbach · Paderborn
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76.7% | 3/10 | 23.3% | 10/3 |
| 2.5 | 51.7% | 10/11 | 48.3% | 11/10 |
| 3.5 | 29.6% | 5/2 | 70.4% | 2/5 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Borussia Monchengladbach to score 1.56 goals and Paderborn 1.18. Its ratings have Borussia Monchengladbach scoring at 0.99 times the model's Bundesliga average and conceding at 1.09 times, against 0.81 and 0.94 for Paderborn. How the model works.
Questions about Borussia Monchengladbach vs Paderborn
Who is the favourite in Borussia Monchengladbach vs Paderborn?
Our model's most likely result is Borussia Monchengladbach win at 45.3%. Full probabilities: Borussia Monchengladbach 45.3%, draw 26.6%, Paderborn 28.0%.
What is the most likely score in Borussia Monchengladbach vs Paderborn?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.7%. The model expects 1.56 goals for Borussia Monchengladbach and 1.18 for Paderborn.
Will Borussia Monchengladbach vs Paderborn have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 51.7% and both teams to score 55.6%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-17
- Matches used
- 3,651
- Model version
- dc-v4-e9f2d6f26aa2
- Data source
- Finished Bundesliga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.