Bundesliga · Gameweek 8
Schalke vs RB Leipzig Prediction
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Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: RB Leipzig 50.6%
Our Bundesliga record: the most likely result happened in 4 of 7 predictions (57%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Schalke vs RB Leipzig: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 50.1% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 52.7% in the model.
Schalke are 14th on 5 points after 6 matches; RB Leipzig are 7th on 9. In 12 Bundesliga meetings since 2016-17, Schalke won 2, RB Leipzig won 8 and 2 were drawn. They last met on 27 May 2023: RB Leipzig 4–2 Schalke. In their last 5 league matches Schalke won 1 and RB Leipzig won 3.
Home and away form
Schalke at home
3 played · 0W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 0.0 scored · 0.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 17 Oct 2026 · Mainz · 0–1 (L)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Elversberg · 0–0 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Bayern Munich · 0–0 (D)
RB Leipzig away
5 played · 1W · 0D · 4L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 2.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · Bayer Leverkusen · 0–2 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Werder Bremen · 1–3 (L)
- 16 May 2026 · Freiburg · 1–4 (L)
- 2 May 2026 · Bayer Leverkusen · 1–4 (L)
- 18 Apr 2026 · Eintracht Frankfurt · 3–1 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Schalke vs RB Leipzig: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49.9%Under 50.1%
- Both teams score
- 52.7%No 47.3%
- Predicted goals
- 1.04 – 1.64Total 2.67 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 19% · 36%Schalke · RB Leipzig
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75.4% | 1/3 | 24.6% | 3/1 |
| 2.5 | 49.9% | evs | 50.1% | evs |
| 3.5 | 27.9% | 5/2 | 72.1% | 2/5 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Schalke to score 1.04 goals and RB Leipzig 1.64. Its ratings have Schalke scoring at 0.75 times the model's Bundesliga average and conceding at 0.93 times, against 1.31 and 0.82 for RB Leipzig. How the model works.
Questions about Schalke vs RB Leipzig
Who is the favourite in Schalke vs RB Leipzig?
Our model's most likely result is RB Leipzig win at 50.6%. Full probabilities: Schalke 23.2%, draw 26.2%, RB Leipzig 50.6%.
What is the most likely score in Schalke vs RB Leipzig?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.5%. The model expects 1.04 goals for Schalke and 1.64 for RB Leipzig.
Will Schalke vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 49.9% and both teams to score 52.7%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-17
- Matches used
- 3,651
- Model version
- dc-v4-e9f2d6f26aa2
- Data source
- Finished Bundesliga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.