Bundesliga · Gameweek 8
Augsburg vs Freiburg Prediction
Upcoming
Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Augsburg 39.0%
Our Bundesliga record: the most likely result happened in 4 of 7 predictions (57%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Augsburg vs Freiburg: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 58.1% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 61.4% in the model.
Augsburg are 10th on 8 points after 6 matches; Freiburg are 2nd on 13. In 28 Bundesliga meetings since 2011-12, Augsburg won 6, Freiburg won 13 and 9 were drawn. They last met on 18 Jan 2026: Augsburg 2–2 Freiburg. In their last 5 league matches Augsburg won 1 and Freiburg won 4.
Home and away form
Augsburg at home
5 played · 2W · 3D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.2 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Bayern Munich · 2–2 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Bayer Leverkusen · 2–2 (D)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Schalke · 3–0 (W)
- 9 May 2026 · Borussia Monchengladbach · 3–1 (W)
- 25 Apr 2026 · Eintracht Frankfurt · 1–1 (D)
Freiburg away
4 played · 1W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.3 scored · 2.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Eintracht Frankfurt · 2–2 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Paderborn · 1–0 (W)
- 10 May 2026 · Hamburg · 2–3 (L)
- 26 Apr 2026 · Borussia Dortmund · 0–4 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Augsburg vs Freiburg: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58.1%Under 41.9%
- Both teams score
- 61.4%No 38.6%
- Predicted goals
- 1.55 – 1.47Total 3.02 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 23% · 21%Augsburg · Freiburg
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81.1% | 2/9 | 18.9% | 9/2 |
| 2.5 | 58.1% | 8/11 | 41.9% | 11/8 |
| 3.5 | 35.7% | 7/4 | 64.3% | 4/7 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Augsburg to score 1.55 goals and Freiburg 1.47. Its ratings have Augsburg scoring at 0.98 times the model's Bundesliga average and conceding at 1.02 times, against 1.08 and 0.94 for Freiburg. How the model works.
Questions about Augsburg vs Freiburg
Who is the favourite in Augsburg vs Freiburg?
Our model's most likely result is Augsburg win at 39.0%. Full probabilities: Augsburg 39.0%, draw 25.7%, Freiburg 35.4%.
What is the most likely score in Augsburg vs Freiburg?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.9%. The model expects 1.55 goals for Augsburg and 1.47 for Freiburg.
Will Augsburg vs Freiburg have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 58.1% and both teams to score 61.4%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-17
- Matches used
- 3,651
- Model version
- dc-v4-e9f2d6f26aa2
- Data source
- Finished Bundesliga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.