Bundesliga · Gameweek 8
Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim Prediction
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Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Werder Bremen 40.7%
Our Bundesliga record: the most likely result happened in 4 of 7 predictions (57%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 65.3% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 66.8% in the model.
Werder Bremen are 8th on 9 points after 6 matches; Hoffenheim are 17th on 3. In 34 Bundesliga meetings since 2008-09, Werder Bremen won 12, Hoffenheim won 12 and 10 were drawn. They last met on 9 May 2026: Hoffenheim 1–0 Werder Bremen. In their last 5 league matches Werder Bremen won 2 and Hoffenheim won 1.
Home and away form
Werder Bremen at home
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 17 Oct 2026 · Paderborn · 2–2 (D)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Augsburg · 3–2 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · RB Leipzig · 3–1 (W)
- 16 May 2026 · Borussia Dortmund · 0–2 (L)
- 2 May 2026 · Augsburg · 1–3 (L)
Hoffenheim away
4 played · 1W · 0D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.3 scored · 2.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · Paderborn · 1–3 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Fc Cologne · 2–3 (L)
- 16 May 2026 · Borussia Monchengladbach · 0–4 (L)
- 25 Apr 2026 · Hamburg · 2–1 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 65.3%Under 34.7%
- Both teams score
- 66.8%No 33.2%
- Predicted goals
- 1.74 – 1.62Total 3.36 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 20% · 17%Werder Bremen · Hoffenheim
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85.5% | 1/6 | 14.5% | 6/1 |
| 2.5 | 65.3% | 8/15 | 34.7% | 15/8 |
| 3.5 | 43.3% | 5/4 | 56.7% | 4/5 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Werder Bremen to score 1.74 goals and Hoffenheim 1.62. Its ratings have Werder Bremen scoring at 0.94 times the model's Bundesliga average and conceding at 1.04 times, against 1.16 and 1.10 for Hoffenheim. How the model works.
Questions about Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim
Who is the favourite in Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim?
Our model's most likely result is Werder Bremen win at 40.7%. Full probabilities: Werder Bremen 40.7%, draw 24.0%, Hoffenheim 35.3%.
What is the most likely score in Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 10.4%. The model expects 1.74 goals for Werder Bremen and 1.62 for Hoffenheim.
Will Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 65.3% and both teams to score 66.8%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-17
- Matches used
- 3,651
- Model version
- dc-v4-e9f2d6f26aa2
- Data source
- Finished Bundesliga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.