Bundesliga · Gameweek 8
Bayer Leverkusen vs Stuttgart Prediction
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Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Bayer Leverkusen 53.6%
Our Bundesliga record: the most likely result happened in 4 of 7 predictions (57%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Bayer Leverkusen vs Stuttgart: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 68.0% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 66.6% in the model.
Bayer Leverkusen are 4th on 10 points after 5 matches; Stuttgart are 13th on 6. In 38 Bundesliga meetings since 2005-06, Bayer Leverkusen won 22, Stuttgart won 7 and 9 were drawn. They last met on 9 May 2026: Stuttgart 3–1 Bayer Leverkusen. In their last 5 league matches Bayer Leverkusen won 3 and Stuttgart won 2.
Home and away form
Bayer Leverkusen at home
5 played · 3W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 2.4 scored · 0.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · RB Leipzig · 2–0 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Union Berlin · 4–0 (W)
- 16 May 2026 · Hamburg · 1–1 (D)
- 2 May 2026 · RB Leipzig · 4–1 (W)
- 18 Apr 2026 · Augsburg · 1–2 (L)
Stuttgart away
5 played · 1W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 17 Oct 2026 · Hamburg · 0–1 (L)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Paderborn · 2–0 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Hoffenheim · 1–2 (L)
- 28 Aug 2026 · Bayern Munich · 1–5 (L)
- 16 May 2026 · Eintracht Frankfurt · 2–2 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Stuttgart: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 68.0%Under 31.9%
- Both teams score
- 66.6%No 33.4%
- Predicted goals
- 2.12 – 1.39Total 3.51 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 25% · 12%Bayer Leverkusen · Stuttgart
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87.1% | 2/13 | 12.9% | 13/2 |
| 2.5 | 68.0% | 4/9 | 31.9% | 85/40 |
| 3.5 | 46.5% | 6/5 | 53.5% | 5/6 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Bayer Leverkusen to score 2.12 goals and Stuttgart 1.39. Its ratings have Bayer Leverkusen scoring at 1.41 times the model's Bundesliga average and conceding at 0.82 times, against 1.27 and 0.89 for Stuttgart. How the model works.
Questions about Bayer Leverkusen vs Stuttgart
Who is the favourite in Bayer Leverkusen vs Stuttgart?
Our model's most likely result is Bayer Leverkusen win at 53.6%. Full probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 53.6%, draw 22.0%, Stuttgart 24.3%.
What is the most likely score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Stuttgart?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 9.4%. The model expects 2.12 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.39 for Stuttgart.
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 68.0% and both teams to score 66.6%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-17
- Matches used
- 3,651
- Model version
- dc-v4-e9f2d6f26aa2
- Data source
- Finished Bundesliga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.