Bundesliga · Gameweek 8
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction
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Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Bayern Munich 64.2%
Our Bundesliga record: the most likely result happened in 4 of 7 predictions (57%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 74.1% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 67.6% in the model.
Bayern Munich lead the Bundesliga in 1st place with 14 points, while Borussia Dortmund are 2nd on 14 points. Both teams have won 3 and drawn 2 of their last 5 matches. Bayern have won all 3 home matches, while Dortmund have won 2 and drawn 1 away. Bayern lead the head-to-head record with 24 wins to Dortmund’s 9, although Bayern won the last meeting 3-2 on 28 Feb 2026.
Home and away form
Bayern Munich at home
5 played · 4W · 1D · 0L
Goals per match: 5.2 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 17 Oct 2026 · RB Leipzig · 6–1 (W)
- 18 Sept 2026 · Union Berlin · 7–0 (W)
- 28 Aug 2026 · Stuttgart · 5–1 (W)
- 16 May 2026 · Fc Cologne · 5–1 (W)
- 2 May 2026 · Heidenheim · 3–3 (D)
Borussia Dortmund away
5 played · 3W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 0.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 17 Oct 2026 · Union Berlin · 0–0 (D)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Stuttgart · 1–0 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Hoffenheim · 3–2 (W)
- 16 May 2026 · Werder Bremen · 2–0 (W)
- 3 May 2026 · Borussia Monchengladbach · 0–1 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 74.1%Under 25.9%
- Both teams score
- 67.6%No 32.4%
- Predicted goals
- 2.56 – 1.30Total 3.86 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 27% · 8%Bayern Munich · Borussia Dortmund
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90.2% | 1/9 | 9.8% | 9/1 |
| 2.5 | 74.1% | 4/11 | 25.9% | 11/4 |
| 3.5 | 53.9% | 5/6 | 46.1% | 6/5 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Bayern Munich to score 2.56 goals and Borussia Dortmund 1.30. Its ratings have Bayern Munich scoring at 2.09 times the model's Bundesliga average and conceding at 0.72 times, against 1.36 and 0.73 for Borussia Dortmund. How the model works.
Questions about Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund
Who is the favourite in Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model's most likely result is Bayern Munich win at 64.2%. Full probabilities: Bayern Munich 64.2%, draw 18.6%, Borussia Dortmund 17.2%.
What is the most likely score in Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund?
2–1 is the single most likely score at 9.0%. The model expects 2.56 goals for Bayern Munich and 1.30 for Borussia Dortmund.
Will Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 74.1% and both teams to score 67.6%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-17
- Matches used
- 3,652
- Model version
- dc-v4-fa5bdbba8cf0
- Data source
- Finished Bundesliga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.