Bundesliga · Gameweek 8
Union Berlin vs FC Cologne Prediction
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Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Union Berlin 42.6%
Our Bundesliga record: the most likely result happened in 5 of 9 predictions (56%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Union Berlin vs FC Cologne: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 51.3% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 55.8% in the model.
Union Berlin are 16th on 5 points after 6 matches, while FC Cologne are 12th on 7 points. Both teams have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches. Union Berlin have 1 win, 2 draws and 1 loss at home; FC Cologne have lost all 3 away matches. Union Berlin lead the head-to-head with 8 wins from 12, while the last meeting ended 2-2 on 2 May 2026.
Home and away form
Union Berlin at home
5 played · 2W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 17 Oct 2026 · Borussia Dortmund · 0–0 (D)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Elversberg · 1–0 (W)
- 11 Sept 2026 · Schalke · 1–3 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Eintracht Frankfurt · 3–3 (D)
- 16 May 2026 · Augsburg · 4–0 (W)
FC Cologne away
5 played · 0W · 1D · 4L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 2.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 16 Oct 2026 · Eintracht Frankfurt · 0–1 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Hamburg · 1–2 (L)
- 4 Sept 2026 · Stuttgart · 1–4 (L)
- 16 May 2026 · Bayern Munich · 1–5 (L)
- 2 May 2026 · Union Berlin · 2–2 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Union Berlin vs FC Cologne: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51.3%Under 48.7%
- Both teams score
- 55.8%No 44.2%
- Predicted goals
- 1.50 – 1.23Total 2.73 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 29% · 22%Union Berlin · FC Cologne
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76.5% | 3/10 | 23.6% | 10/3 |
| 2.5 | 51.3% | 10/11 | 48.7% | 11/10 |
| 3.5 | 29.2% | 5/2 | 70.8% | 2/5 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Union Berlin to score 1.50 goals and FC Cologne 1.23. Its ratings have Union Berlin scoring at 0.82 times the model's Bundesliga average and conceding at 1.02 times, against 0.91 and 1.08 for FC Cologne. How the model works.
Questions about Union Berlin vs FC Cologne
Who is the favourite in Union Berlin vs FC Cologne?
Our model's most likely result is Union Berlin win at 42.6%. Full probabilities: Union Berlin 42.6%, draw 27.0%, FC Cologne 30.4%.
What is the most likely score in Union Berlin vs FC Cologne?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.8%. The model expects 1.50 goals for Union Berlin and 1.23 for FC Cologne.
Will Union Berlin vs FC Cologne have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 51.3% and both teams to score 55.8%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-18
- Matches used
- 3,653
- Model version
- dc-v4-6b0c3d87b1da
- Data source
- Finished Bundesliga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Bundesliga season outlook →