Ligue 1 · Gameweek 7
Le Mans vs Toulouse Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Le Mans 43.2%
Prediction probabilities
Le Mans vs Toulouse: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 59.8% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 62.0% in the model.
Le Mans are 14th on 6 points after 6 matches; Toulouse are 15th on 6. In their last 5 league matches Le Mans won 1 and Toulouse won 1.
Home and away form
Le Mans at home
3 played · 1W · 2D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 1.7 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Lorient · 2–1 (W)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Lens · 2–2 (D)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Brest · 2–2 (D)
Toulouse away
5 played · 1W · 4D · 0L
Goals per match: 1.6 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Monaco · 2–2 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Lorient · 2–2 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Brest · 2–2 (D)
- 17 May 2026 · Nantes · 0–0 (D)
- 3 May 2026 · Strasbourg · 2–1 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59.8%Under 40.2%
- Both teams score
- 62.0%No 38.0%
- Predicted goals
- 1.67 – 1.42Total 3.09 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 24% · 19%Le Mans · Toulouse
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81.9% | 18.1% |
| 2.5 | 59.8% | 40.2% |
| 3.5 | 37.4% | 62.6% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Le Mans to score 1.67 goals and Toulouse 1.42. Its ratings have Le Mans scoring at 1.16 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 1.11 times, against 1.03 and 0.95 for Toulouse. How the model works.
Questions about Le Mans vs Toulouse
Who is the favourite in Le Mans vs Toulouse?
Our model's most likely result is Le Mans win at 43.2%. Full probabilities: Le Mans 43.2%, draw 24.5%, Toulouse 32.3%.
What is the most likely score in Le Mans vs Toulouse?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.2%. The model expects 1.67 goals for Le Mans and 1.42 for Toulouse.
Will Le Mans vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 59.8% and both teams to score 62.0%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,112
- Model version
- dc-v4-152b40e636ac
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.