Ligue 1 · Gameweek 7
Strasbourg vs Paris Saint-Germain Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Paris Saint-Germain 53.3%
Prediction probabilities
Strasbourg vs Paris Saint-Germain: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 64.4% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 63.5% in the model.
Strasbourg are 11th on 7 points after 6 matches; Paris Saint-Germain are 6th on 11. In 12 Ligue 1 meetings since 2020-21, Strasbourg won 1, Paris Saint-Germain won 8 and 3 were drawn. They last met on 1 Feb 2026: Strasbourg 1–2 Paris Saint-Germain. In their last 5 league matches Strasbourg won 2 and Paris Saint-Germain won 3.
Home and away form
Strasbourg at home
4 played · 2W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 2.3 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 12 Sept 2026 · Monaco · 1–1 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Lens · 2–1 (W)
- 17 May 2026 · Monaco · 5–4 (W)
- 3 May 2026 · Toulouse · 1–2 (L)
Paris Saint-Germain away
5 played · 2W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.6 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · Marseille · 2–1 (W)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Brest · 1–0 (W)
- 28 Aug 2026 · Lille · 2–2 (D)
- 23 Aug 2026 · Rennes · 2–2 (D)
- 17 May 2026 · Paris FC · 1–2 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 64.4%Under 35.6%
- Both teams score
- 63.5%No 36.5%
- Predicted goals
- 1.31 – 2.01Total 3.32 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 13% · 27%Strasbourg · Paris Saint-Germain
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84.7% | 15.3% |
| 2.5 | 64.4% | 35.6% |
| 3.5 | 42.3% | 57.7% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Strasbourg to score 1.31 goals and Paris Saint-Germain 2.01. Its ratings have Strasbourg scoring at 1.21 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 0.99 times, against 1.64 and 0.71 for Paris Saint-Germain. How the model works.
Questions about Strasbourg vs Paris Saint-Germain
Who is the favourite in Strasbourg vs Paris Saint-Germain?
Our model's most likely result is Paris Saint-Germain win at 53.3%. Full probabilities: Strasbourg 24.4%, draw 22.3%, Paris Saint-Germain 53.3%.
What is the most likely score in Strasbourg vs Paris Saint-Germain?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 9.9%. The model expects 1.31 goals for Strasbourg and 2.01 for Paris Saint-Germain.
Will Strasbourg vs Paris Saint-Germain have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 64.4% and both teams to score 63.5%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,112
- Model version
- dc-v4-152b40e636ac
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.