Ligue 1 · Gameweek 7
Troyes vs Lens Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Lens 60.0%
Prediction probabilities
Troyes vs Lens: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 56.0% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 53.7% in the model.
Troyes are 17th on 4 points after 6 matches; Lens are 10th on 7. In 4 Ligue 1 meetings since 2021-22, Troyes won 0, Lens won 3 and 1 was drawn. They last met on 28 Jan 2023: Troyes 1–1 Lens. In their last 5 league matches Troyes won 1 and Lens won 1.
Home and away form
Troyes at home
3 played · 0W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 0.7 scored · 2.7 conceded
Results in this sample
- 11 Oct 2026 · Marseille · 0–2 (L)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Strasbourg · 2–6 (L)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Paris FC · 0–0 (D)
Lens away
5 played · 1W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 18 Sept 2026 · Monaco · 1–2 (L)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Le Mans · 2–2 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Strasbourg · 1–2 (L)
- 17 May 2026 · Lyon · 4–0 (W)
- 2 May 2026 · Nice · 1–1 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56.0%Under 44.0%
- Both teams score
- 53.7%No 46.3%
- Predicted goals
- 0.97 – 1.96Total 2.92 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 14% · 38%Troyes · Lens
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79.3% | 20.7% |
| 2.5 | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| 3.5 | 33.6% | 66.4% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Troyes to score 0.97 goals and Lens 1.96. Its ratings have Troyes scoring at 0.79 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 1.27 times, against 1.24 and 0.80 for Lens. How the model works.
Questions about Troyes vs Lens
Who is the favourite in Troyes vs Lens?
Our model's most likely result is Lens win at 60.0%. Full probabilities: Troyes 17.7%, draw 22.3%, Lens 60.0%.
What is the most likely score in Troyes vs Lens?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 10.6%. The model expects 0.97 goals for Troyes and 1.96 for Lens.
Will Troyes vs Lens have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 56.0% and both teams to score 53.7%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,112
- Model version
- dc-v4-152b40e636ac
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.