Ligue 1 · Gameweek 7
Lille vs Brest Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Lille 55.4%
Prediction probabilities
Lille vs Brest: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 51.2% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 51.7% in the model.
Lille are 2nd on 13 points after 6 matches; Brest are 7th on 8. In 12 Ligue 1 meetings since 2020-21, Lille won 3, Brest won 3 and 6 were drawn. They last met on 14 Feb 2026: Lille 1–1 Brest. In their last 5 league matches Lille won 3 and Brest won 2.
Home and away form
Lille at home
5 played · 2W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Le Havre · 1–0 (W)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Troyes · 2–0 (W)
- 28 Aug 2026 · Paris Saint-Germain · 2–2 (D)
- 17 May 2026 · Auxerre · 0–2 (L)
- 3 May 2026 · Le Havre · 1–1 (D)
Brest away
5 played · 1W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · Auxerre · 1–2 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Le Havre · 2–1 (W)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Le Mans · 2–2 (D)
- 10 May 2026 · Paris Saint-Germain · 0–1 (L)
- 3 May 2026 · Paris FC · 0–4 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51.2%Under 48.8%
- Both teams score
- 51.7%No 48.3%
- Predicted goals
- 1.75 – 0.97Total 2.72 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 38% · 17%Lille · Brest
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76.0% | 24.0% |
| 2.5 | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| 3.5 | 29.1% | 70.9% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Lille to score 1.75 goals and Brest 0.97. Its ratings have Lille scoring at 1.10 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 0.72 times, against 1.08 and 1.05 for Brest. How the model works.
Questions about Lille vs Brest
Who is the favourite in Lille vs Brest?
Our model's most likely result is Lille win at 55.4%. Full probabilities: Lille 55.4%, draw 24.4%, Brest 20.2%.
What is the most likely score in Lille vs Brest?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.6%. The model expects 1.75 goals for Lille and 0.97 for Brest.
Will Lille vs Brest have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 51.2% and both teams to score 51.7%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,112
- Model version
- dc-v4-152b40e636ac
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.