Ligue 1 · Gameweek 7
Angers vs Marseille Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Marseille 52.8%
Prediction probabilities
Angers vs Marseille: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 50.7% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 52.4% in the model.
Angers are 12th on 7 points after 6 matches; Marseille are 13th on 6. In 10 Ligue 1 meetings since 2020-21, Angers won 1, Marseille won 6 and 3 were drawn. They last met on 17 Jan 2026: Angers 2–5 Marseille. In their last 5 league matches Angers won 2 and Marseille won 1.
Home and away form
Angers at home
5 played · 1W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 1.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Troyes · 2–0 (W)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Rennes · 1–2 (L)
- 23 Aug 2026 · Lille · 0–2 (L)
- 10 May 2026 · Strasbourg · 1–1 (D)
- 25 Apr 2026 · Paris Saint-Germain · 0–3 (L)
Marseille away
5 played · 2W · 0D · 3L
Goals per match: 0.6 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 11 Oct 2026 · Troyes · 2–0 (W)
- 11 Sept 2026 · Rennes · 0–1 (L)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Monaco · 0–2 (L)
- 10 May 2026 · Le Havre · 1–0 (W)
- 2 May 2026 · Nantes · 0–3 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50.7%Under 49.3%
- Both teams score
- 52.4%No 47.6%
- Predicted goals
- 1.01 – 1.69Total 2.70 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 18% · 36%Angers · Marseille
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75.7% | 24.3% |
| 2.5 | 50.7% | 49.3% |
| 3.5 | 28.7% | 71.3% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Angers to score 1.01 goals and Marseille 1.69. Its ratings have Angers scoring at 0.74 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 1.04 times, against 1.31 and 0.90 for Marseille. How the model works.
Questions about Angers vs Marseille
Who is the favourite in Angers vs Marseille?
Our model's most likely result is Marseille win at 52.8%. Full probabilities: Angers 22.1%, draw 25.0%, Marseille 52.8%.
What is the most likely score in Angers vs Marseille?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.9%. The model expects 1.01 goals for Angers and 1.69 for Marseille.
Will Angers vs Marseille have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 50.7% and both teams to score 52.4%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,112
- Model version
- dc-v4-152b40e636ac
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.