Ligue 1 · Gameweek 7
Lorient vs Monaco Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Monaco 43.2%
Prediction probabilities
Lorient vs Monaco: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 58.1% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 60.7% in the model.
Lorient are 8th on 8 points after 6 matches; Monaco are 1st on 14. In 10 Ligue 1 meetings since 2020-21, Lorient won 3, Monaco won 2 and 5 were drawn. They last met on 16 Jan 2026: Monaco 1–3 Lorient. In their last 5 league matches Lorient won 2 and Monaco won 3.
Home and away form
Lorient at home
5 played · 1W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Paris FC · 1–0 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Toulouse · 2–2 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Troyes · 1–2 (L)
- 17 May 2026 · Le Havre · 0–2 (L)
- 26 Apr 2026 · Strasbourg · 2–3 (L)
Monaco away
5 played · 3W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 1.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 12 Sept 2026 · Strasbourg · 1–1 (D)
- 4 Sept 2026 · Paris Saint-Germain · 2–1 (W)
- 23 Aug 2026 · Le Havre · 1–0 (W)
- 17 May 2026 · Strasbourg · 4–5 (L)
- 2 May 2026 · Metz · 2–1 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58.1%Under 41.9%
- Both teams score
- 60.7%No 39.3%
- Predicted goals
- 1.38 – 1.64Total 3.02 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 19% · 25%Lorient · Monaco
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80.8% | 19.2% |
| 2.5 | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| 3.5 | 35.6% | 64.3% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Lorient to score 1.38 goals and Monaco 1.64. Its ratings have Lorient scoring at 0.99 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 0.99 times, against 1.34 and 0.92 for Monaco. How the model works.
Questions about Lorient vs Monaco
Who is the favourite in Lorient vs Monaco?
Our model's most likely result is Monaco win at 43.2%. Full probabilities: Lorient 31.9%, draw 24.9%, Monaco 43.2%.
What is the most likely score in Lorient vs Monaco?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.5%. The model expects 1.38 goals for Lorient and 1.64 for Monaco.
Will Lorient vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 58.1% and both teams to score 60.7%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,112
- Model version
- dc-v4-152b40e636ac
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.