Ligue 1 · Gameweek 7
Paris FC vs Rennes Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Paris FC 41.1%
Prediction probabilities
Paris FC vs Rennes: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 56.0% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 59.3% in the model.
Paris FC are 5th on 11 points after 6 matches; Rennes are 3rd on 13. In 2 Ligue 1 meetings since 2025-26, Paris FC won 0, Rennes won 2 and none were drawn. They last met on 10 May 2026: Rennes 2–1 Paris FC. In their last 5 league matches Paris FC won 3 and Rennes won 4.
Home and away form
Paris FC at home
5 played · 4W · 1D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.2 scored · 0.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Strasbourg · 2–1 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Lyon · 0–0 (D)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Nice · 3–0 (W)
- 17 May 2026 · Paris Saint-Germain · 2–1 (W)
- 3 May 2026 · Brest · 4–0 (W)
Rennes away
4 played · 1W · 0D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.3 scored · 3.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Lyon · 0–4 (L)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Angers · 2–1 (W)
- 17 May 2026 · Marseille · 1–3 (L)
- 3 May 2026 · Lyon · 2–4 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56.0%Under 44.0%
- Both teams score
- 59.3%No 40.7%
- Predicted goals
- 1.55 – 1.37Total 2.92 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 25% · 21%Paris FC · Rennes
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79.4% | 20.6% |
| 2.5 | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| 3.5 | 33.6% | 66.4% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Paris FC to score 1.55 goals and Rennes 1.37. Its ratings have Paris FC scoring at 1.04 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 0.87 times, against 1.28 and 0.98 for Rennes. How the model works.
Questions about Paris FC vs Rennes
Who is the favourite in Paris FC vs Rennes?
Our model's most likely result is Paris FC win at 41.1%. Full probabilities: Paris FC 41.1%, draw 25.5%, Rennes 33.4%.
What is the most likely score in Paris FC vs Rennes?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.9%. The model expects 1.55 goals for Paris FC and 1.37 for Rennes.
Will Paris FC vs Rennes have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 56.0% and both teams to score 59.3%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,112
- Model version
- dc-v4-152b40e636ac
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.