Ligue 1 · Gameweek 7
Le Havre vs Auxerre Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Le Havre 38.0%
Prediction probabilities
Le Havre vs Auxerre: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 58.0% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 51.5% in the model.
Le Havre are 18th on 2 points after 6 matches; Auxerre are 16th on 6. In 4 Ligue 1 meetings since 2024-25, Le Havre won 3, Auxerre won 0 and 1 was drawn. They last met on 5 Apr 2026: Le Havre 1–1 Auxerre. In their last 5 league matches Le Havre won 0 and Auxerre won 2.
Home and away form
Le Havre at home
5 played · 0W · 2D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 1.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 12 Sept 2026 · Angers · 0–0 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Brest · 1–2 (L)
- 23 Aug 2026 · Monaco · 0–1 (L)
- 10 May 2026 · Marseille · 0–1 (L)
- 26 Apr 2026 · Metz · 4–4 (D)
Auxerre away
5 played · 1W · 0D · 4L
Goals per match: 1.6 scored · 3.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 11 Oct 2026 · Rennes · 1–4 (L)
- 4 Sept 2026 · Lyon · 1–3 (L)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Lens · 2–5 (L)
- 17 May 2026 · Lille · 2–0 (W)
- 25 Apr 2026 · Lyon · 2–3 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42.0%Under 58.0%
- Both teams score
- 48.5%No 51.5%
- Predicted goals
- 1.23 – 1.13Total 2.36 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 32% · 29%Le Havre · Auxerre
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68.8% | 31.2% |
| 2.5 | 42.0% | 58.0% |
| 3.5 | 21.3% | 78.7% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Le Havre to score 1.23 goals and Auxerre 1.13. Its ratings have Le Havre scoring at 0.79 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 1.00 times, against 0.91 and 1.03 for Auxerre. How the model works.
Questions about Le Havre vs Auxerre
Who is the favourite in Le Havre vs Auxerre?
Our model's most likely result is Le Havre win at 38.0%. Full probabilities: Le Havre 38.0%, draw 28.9%, Auxerre 33.1%.
What is the most likely score in Le Havre vs Auxerre?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.6%. The model expects 1.23 goals for Le Havre and 1.13 for Auxerre.
Will Le Havre vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 42.0% and both teams to score 48.5%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,112
- Model version
- dc-v4-152b40e636ac
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.