Ligue 1 · Gameweek 7
Lyon vs Nice Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Lyon 55.3%
Prediction probabilities
Lyon vs Nice: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 53.7% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 54.0% in the model.
Lyon are 4th on 11 points after 6 matches; Nice are 9th on 8. In 12 Ligue 1 meetings since 2020-21, Lyon won 6, Nice won 4 and 2 were drawn. They last met on 15 Feb 2026: Lyon 2–0 Nice. In their last 5 league matches Lyon won 2 and Nice won 2.
Home and away form
Lyon at home
5 played · 3W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 2.4 scored · 1.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Rennes · 4–0 (W)
- 4 Sept 2026 · Auxerre · 3–1 (W)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Le Havre · 1–1 (D)
- 17 May 2026 · Lens · 0–4 (L)
- 3 May 2026 · Rennes · 4–2 (W)
Nice away
4 played · 0W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 0.5 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 12 Sept 2026 · Auxerre · 0–1 (L)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Paris FC · 0–3 (L)
- 10 May 2026 · Auxerre · 1–2 (L)
- 26 Apr 2026 · Marseille · 1–1 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53.7%Under 46.3%
- Both teams score
- 54.0%No 46.0%
- Predicted goals
- 1.81 – 1.02Total 2.83 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 36% · 16%Lyon · Nice
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77.8% | 22.2% |
| 2.5 | 53.7% | 46.3% |
| 3.5 | 31.4% | 68.6% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Lyon to score 1.81 goals and Nice 1.02. Its ratings have Lyon scoring at 1.26 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 0.86 times, against 0.96 and 0.94 for Nice. How the model works.
Questions about Lyon vs Nice
Who is the favourite in Lyon vs Nice?
Our model's most likely result is Lyon win at 55.3%. Full probabilities: Lyon 55.3%, draw 23.9%, Nice 20.8%.
What is the most likely score in Lyon vs Nice?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.3%. The model expects 1.81 goals for Lyon and 1.02 for Nice.
Will Lyon vs Nice have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 53.7% and both teams to score 54.0%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,112
- Model version
- dc-v4-152b40e636ac
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.