Ligue 1 · Gameweek 8
Toulouse vs Troyes Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Toulouse 61.7%
Prediction probabilities
Toulouse vs Troyes: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 56.2% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 52.9% in the model.
Toulouse are 15th on 6 points after 6 matches; Troyes are 17th on 4. In 2 Ligue 1 meetings since 2022-23, Toulouse won 2, Troyes won 0 and none were drawn. They last met on 1 Feb 2023: Toulouse 4–1 Troyes. In their last 5 league matches Toulouse won 1 and Troyes won 1.
Home and away form
Toulouse at home
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 1.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Le Havre · 3–2 (W)
- 3 Sept 2026 · Lille · 0–1 (L)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Lyon · 0–2 (L)
- 10 May 2026 · Lyon · 2–1 (W)
- 25 Apr 2026 · Monaco · 2–2 (D)
Troyes away
3 played · 1W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 0.7 scored · 1.7 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Angers · 0–2 (L)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Lille · 0–2 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Lorient · 2–1 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56.2%Under 43.8%
- Both teams score
- 52.9%No 47.1%
- Predicted goals
- 2.00 – 0.94Total 2.93 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 39% · 14%Toulouse · Troyes
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79.5% | 20.5% |
| 2.5 | 56.2% | 43.8% |
| 3.5 | 33.8% | 66.2% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Toulouse to score 2.00 goals and Troyes 0.94. Its ratings have Toulouse scoring at 1.03 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 0.95 times, against 0.79 and 1.27 for Troyes. How the model works.
Questions about Toulouse vs Troyes
Who is the favourite in Toulouse vs Troyes?
Our model's most likely result is Toulouse win at 61.7%. Full probabilities: Toulouse 61.7%, draw 21.8%, Troyes 16.5%.
What is the most likely score in Toulouse vs Troyes?
2–0 is the single most likely score at 10.6%. The model expects 2.00 goals for Toulouse and 0.94 for Troyes.
Will Toulouse vs Troyes have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 56.2% and both teams to score 52.9%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,112
- Model version
- dc-v4-152b40e636ac
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.