Ligue 1 · Gameweek 8
Monaco vs Lille Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Monaco 41.6%
Prediction probabilities
Monaco vs Lille: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 51.3% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 55.5% in the model.
Monaco are 1st on 14 points after 6 matches; Lille are 2nd on 13. In 12 Ligue 1 meetings since 2020-21, Monaco won 2, Lille won 6 and 4 were drawn. They last met on 10 May 2026: Monaco 0–1 Lille. In their last 5 league matches Monaco won 3 and Lille won 3.
Home and away form
Monaco at home
4 played · 2W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.5 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Toulouse · 2–2 (D)
- 18 Sept 2026 · Lens · 2–1 (W)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Marseille · 2–0 (W)
- 10 May 2026 · Lille · 0–1 (L)
Lille away
5 played · 4W · 0D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 0.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · Nice · 1–2 (L)
- 3 Sept 2026 · Toulouse · 1–0 (W)
- 23 Aug 2026 · Angers · 2–0 (W)
- 10 May 2026 · Monaco · 1–0 (W)
- 26 Apr 2026 · Paris FC · 1–0 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51.3%Under 48.7%
- Both teams score
- 55.5%No 44.5%
- Predicted goals
- 1.47 – 1.26Total 2.73 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 28% · 23%Monaco · Lille
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76.1% | 23.9% |
| 2.5 | 51.3% | 48.7% |
| 3.5 | 29.1% | 70.8% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Monaco to score 1.47 goals and Lille 1.26. Its ratings have Monaco scoring at 1.34 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 0.92 times, against 1.10 and 0.72 for Lille. How the model works.
Questions about Monaco vs Lille
Who is the favourite in Monaco vs Lille?
Our model's most likely result is Monaco win at 41.6%. Full probabilities: Monaco 41.6%, draw 26.5%, Lille 31.9%.
What is the most likely score in Monaco vs Lille?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.6%. The model expects 1.47 goals for Monaco and 1.26 for Lille.
Will Monaco vs Lille have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 51.3% and both teams to score 55.5%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,112
- Model version
- dc-v4-152b40e636ac
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.