Ligue 1 · Gameweek 8
Marseille vs Le Havre Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Marseille 62.9%
1 Ligue 1 prediction published before kickoff and never edited; results are scored as matches are played. See every prediction ›
Marseille vs Le Havre: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 54.8% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 50.9% in the model.
Marseille are 13th on 6 points after 6 matches; Le Havre are 18th on 2. In 8 Ligue 1 meetings since 2008-09, Marseille won 8, Le Havre won 0 and none were drawn. They last met on 10 May 2026: Le Havre 0–1 Marseille. In their last 5 league matches Marseille won 1 and Le Havre won 0.
Home and away form
Marseille at home
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 2.2 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · Paris Saint-Germain · 1–2 (L)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Paris FC · 2–3 (L)
- 21 Aug 2026 · Strasbourg · 4–0 (W)
- 17 May 2026 · Rennes · 3–1 (W)
- 26 Apr 2026 · Nice · 1–1 (D)
Le Havre away
5 played · 1W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Lille · 0–1 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Toulouse · 2–3 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Lyon · 1–1 (D)
- 17 May 2026 · Lorient · 2–0 (W)
- 3 May 2026 · Lille · 1–1 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54.8%Under 45.2%
- Both teams score
- 50.9%No 49.1%
- Predicted goals
- 1.99 – 0.88Total 2.87 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 41% · 14%Marseille · Le Havre
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78.5% | 21.5% |
| 2.5 | 54.8% | 45.2% |
| 3.5 | 32.4% | 67.6% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Marseille to score 1.99 goals and Le Havre 0.88. Its ratings have Marseille scoring at 1.32 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 0.90 times, against 0.79 and 1.00 for Le Havre. How the model works.
Questions about Marseille vs Le Havre
Who is the favourite in Marseille vs Le Havre?
Our model's most likely result is Marseille win at 62.9%. Full probabilities: Marseille 62.9%, draw 21.6%, Le Havre 15.4%.
What is the most likely score in Marseille vs Le Havre?
2–0 is the single most likely score at 11.2%. The model expects 1.99 goals for Marseille and 0.88 for Le Havre.
Will Marseille vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 54.8% and both teams to score 50.9%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-15
- Matches used
- 4,194
- Model version
- dc-v4-12e71d145a77
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.