Ligue 1 · Gameweek 8
Auxerre vs Le Mans Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Auxerre 39.0%
Prediction probabilities
Auxerre vs Le Mans: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 58.0% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 61.0% in the model.
Auxerre are 16th on 6 points after 6 matches; Le Mans are 14th on 6. In their last 5 league matches Auxerre won 2 and Le Mans won 1.
Home and away form
Auxerre at home
5 played · 4W · 0D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · Brest · 2–1 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Nice · 1–0 (W)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Angers · 1–3 (L)
- 10 May 2026 · Nice · 2–1 (W)
- 3 May 2026 · Angers · 3–1 (W)
Le Mans away
3 played · 0W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.3 scored · 2.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Paris Saint-Germain · 1–3 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Nice · 1–1 (D)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Rennes · 2–3 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58.0%Under 42.0%
- Both teams score
- 61.0%No 39.0%
- Predicted goals
- 1.54 – 1.47Total 3.01 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 23% · 21%Auxerre · Le Mans
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80.7% | 19.3% |
| 2.5 | 58.0% | 42.0% |
| 3.5 | 35.6% | 64.4% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Auxerre to score 1.54 goals and Le Mans 1.47. Its ratings have Auxerre scoring at 0.91 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 1.03 times, against 1.16 and 1.11 for Le Mans. How the model works.
Questions about Auxerre vs Le Mans
Who is the favourite in Auxerre vs Le Mans?
Our model's most likely result is Auxerre win at 39.0%. Full probabilities: Auxerre 39.0%, draw 25.1%, Le Mans 35.9%.
What is the most likely score in Auxerre vs Le Mans?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.6%. The model expects 1.54 goals for Auxerre and 1.47 for Le Mans.
Will Auxerre vs Le Mans have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 58.0% and both teams to score 61.0%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,112
- Model version
- dc-v4-152b40e636ac
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.