Ligue 1 · Gameweek 8
Paris Saint-Germain vs Lyon Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Paris Saint-Germain 60.5%
Prediction probabilities
Paris Saint-Germain vs Lyon: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 63.1% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 59.6% in the model.
Paris Saint-Germain are 6th on 11 points after 6 matches; Lyon are 4th on 11. In 12 Ligue 1 meetings since 2020-21, Paris Saint-Germain won 8, Lyon won 3 and 1 was drawn. They last met on 19 Apr 2026: Paris Saint-Germain 1–2 Lyon. In their last 5 league matches Paris Saint-Germain won 3 and Lyon won 2.
Home and away form
Paris Saint-Germain at home
4 played · 2W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 1.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Le Mans · 3–1 (W)
- 4 Sept 2026 · Monaco · 1–2 (L)
- 10 May 2026 · Brest · 1–0 (W)
- 2 May 2026 · Lorient · 2–2 (D)
Lyon away
4 played · 1W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 9 Oct 2026 · Lens · 1–2 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Paris FC · 0–0 (D)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Toulouse · 2–0 (W)
- 10 May 2026 · Toulouse · 1–2 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63.1%Under 36.9%
- Both teams score
- 59.6%No 40.4%
- Predicted goals
- 2.14 – 1.11Total 3.25 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 33% · 12%Paris Saint-Germain · Lyon
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83.9% | 16.1% |
| 2.5 | 63.1% | 36.9% |
| 3.5 | 40.9% | 59.1% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Paris Saint-Germain to score 2.14 goals and Lyon 1.11. Its ratings have Paris Saint-Germain scoring at 1.64 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 0.71 times, against 1.26 and 0.86 for Lyon. How the model works.
Questions about Paris Saint-Germain vs Lyon
Who is the favourite in Paris Saint-Germain vs Lyon?
Our model's most likely result is Paris Saint-Germain win at 60.5%. Full probabilities: Paris Saint-Germain 60.5%, draw 21.0%, Lyon 18.5%.
What is the most likely score in Paris Saint-Germain vs Lyon?
2–1 is the single most likely score at 9.8%. The model expects 2.14 goals for Paris Saint-Germain and 1.11 for Lyon.
Will Paris Saint-Germain vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 63.1% and both teams to score 59.6%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,112
- Model version
- dc-v4-152b40e636ac
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.