Ligue 1 · Gameweek 9
Le Havre vs Paris Saint-Germain Prediction
Upcoming
Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Paris Saint-Germain 64.4%
Our Ligue 1 record: the most likely result happened in 0 of 1 predictions (0%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Le Havre vs Paris Saint-Germain: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 55.1% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 50.3% in the model.
Le Havre are 18th with 2 points from 6 matches, while Paris Saint-Germain are sixth with 11 points. Le Havre’s recent form is LLDLD; Paris Saint-Germain’s is WWWLD. Paris Saint-Germain have won 7 of 8 meetings, including a 1-0 win on 28 Feb 2026. Le Havre are 0-1-2 at home, while Paris Saint-Germain are 2-2-0 away.
Home and away form
Le Havre at home
5 played · 0W · 2D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 1.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 12 Sept 2026 · Angers · 0–0 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Brest · 1–2 (L)
- 23 Aug 2026 · Monaco · 0–1 (L)
- 10 May 2026 · Marseille · 0–1 (L)
- 26 Apr 2026 · Metz · 4–4 (D)
Paris Saint-Germain away
5 played · 2W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.6 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · Marseille · 2–1 (W)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Brest · 1–0 (W)
- 28 Aug 2026 · Lille · 2–2 (D)
- 23 Aug 2026 · Rennes · 2–2 (D)
- 17 May 2026 · Paris FC · 1–2 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Le Havre vs Paris Saint-Germain: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55.1%Under 44.9%
- Both teams score
- 50.3%No 49.7%
- Predicted goals
- 0.85 – 2.03Total 2.89 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 13% · 43%Le Havre · Paris Saint-Germain
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78.7% | 2/7 | 21.3% | 7/2 |
| 2.5 | 55.1% | 4/5 | 44.9% | 5/4 |
| 3.5 | 32.8% | 2/1 | 67.2% | 1/2 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Le Havre to score 0.85 goals and Paris Saint-Germain 2.03. Its ratings have Le Havre scoring at 0.80 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 0.99 times, against 1.66 and 0.71 for Paris Saint-Germain. How the model works.
Questions about Le Havre vs Paris Saint-Germain
Who is the favourite in Le Havre vs Paris Saint-Germain?
Our model's most likely result is Paris Saint-Germain win at 64.4%. Full probabilities: Le Havre 14.5%, draw 21.1%, Paris Saint-Germain 64.4%.
What is the most likely score in Le Havre vs Paris Saint-Germain?
0–2 is the single most likely score at 11.5%. The model expects 0.85 goals for Le Havre and 2.03 for Paris Saint-Germain.
Will Le Havre vs Paris Saint-Germain have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 55.1% and both teams to score 50.3%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-17
- Matches used
- 4,192
- Model version
- dc-v4-daeadb3dff81
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.