Ligue 1 · Gameweek 9
Lille vs Lens Prediction
Upcoming
Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Lille 41.8%
Our Ligue 1 record: the most likely result happened in 0 of 1 predictions (0%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Lille vs Lens: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 55.4% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 50.2% in the model.
Lille are 2nd on 13 points after 6 matches; Lens are 11th on 7. In 24 Ligue 1 meetings since 2005-06, Lille won 14, Lens won 4 and 6 were drawn. They last met on 4 Apr 2026: Lille 3–0 Lens. In their last 5 league matches Lille won 3 and Lens won 1.
Home and away form
Lille at home
5 played · 2W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Le Havre · 1–0 (W)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Troyes · 2–0 (W)
- 28 Aug 2026 · Paris Saint-Germain · 2–2 (D)
- 17 May 2026 · Auxerre · 0–2 (L)
- 3 May 2026 · Le Havre · 1–1 (D)
Lens away
5 played · 1W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 18 Sept 2026 · Monaco · 1–2 (L)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Le Mans · 2–2 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Strasbourg · 1–2 (L)
- 17 May 2026 · Lyon · 4–0 (W)
- 2 May 2026 · Nice · 1–1 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Lille vs Lens: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44.6%Under 55.4%
- Both teams score
- 50.2%No 49.8%
- Predicted goals
- 1.35 – 1.11Total 2.46 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 33% · 26%Lille · Lens
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71.0% | 2/5 | 29.0% | 5/2 |
| 2.5 | 44.6% | 5/4 | 55.4% | 4/5 |
| 3.5 | 23.4% | 10/3 | 76.6% | 3/10 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Lille to score 1.35 goals and Lens 1.11. Its ratings have Lille scoring at 1.11 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 0.72 times, against 1.25 and 0.81 for Lens. How the model works.
Questions about Lille vs Lens
Who is the favourite in Lille vs Lens?
Our model's most likely result is Lille win at 41.8%. Full probabilities: Lille 41.8%, draw 28.0%, Lens 30.2%.
What is the most likely score in Lille vs Lens?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.3%. The model expects 1.35 goals for Lille and 1.11 for Lens.
Will Lille vs Lens have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 44.6% and both teams to score 50.2%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-17
- Matches used
- 4,192
- Model version
- dc-v4-daeadb3dff81
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.