Ligue 1 · Gameweek 9
Nice vs Rennes Prediction
Upcoming
Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Rennes 38.8%
Our Ligue 1 record: the most likely result happened in 2 of 4 predictions (50%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Nice vs Rennes: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 55.7% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 59.3% in the model.
Nice are 10th on 8 points after 6 matches; Rennes are 4th on 13. In 42 Ligue 1 meetings since 2005-06, Nice won 17, Rennes won 14 and 11 were drawn. They last met on 8 Mar 2026: Nice 0–4 Rennes. In their last 5 league matches Nice won 2 and Rennes won 4.
Home and away form
Nice at home
5 played · 2W · 3D · 0L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 0.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 11 Oct 2026 · Strasbourg · 2–1 (W)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Lille · 2–1 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Le Mans · 1–1 (D)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Lorient · 0–0 (D)
- 17 May 2026 · Metz · 0–0 (D)
Rennes away
4 played · 1W · 0D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.3 scored · 3.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Lyon · 0–4 (L)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Angers · 2–1 (W)
- 17 May 2026 · Marseille · 1–3 (L)
- 3 May 2026 · Lyon · 2–4 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Nice vs Rennes: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55.7%Under 44.3%
- Both teams score
- 59.3%No 40.8%
- Predicted goals
- 1.42 – 1.49Total 2.91 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 22% · 24%Nice · Rennes
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79.2% | 1/4 | 20.8% | 4/1 |
| 2.5 | 55.7% | 4/5 | 44.3% | 5/4 |
| 3.5 | 33.4% | 2/1 | 66.7% | 1/2 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Nice to score 1.42 goals and Rennes 1.49. Its ratings have Nice scoring at 0.97 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 0.94 times, against 1.28 and 0.98 for Rennes. How the model works.
Questions about Nice vs Rennes
Who is the favourite in Nice vs Rennes?
Our model's most likely result is Rennes win at 38.8%. Full probabilities: Nice 35.6%, draw 25.6%, Rennes 38.8%.
What is the most likely score in Nice vs Rennes?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.9%. The model expects 1.42 goals for Nice and 1.49 for Rennes.
Will Nice vs Rennes have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 55.7% and both teams to score 59.2%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-17
- Matches used
- 4,193
- Model version
- dc-v4-138044f43dac
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.