Ligue 1 · Gameweek 9
Lyon vs Angers Prediction
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Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Lyon 64.8%
Our Ligue 1 record: the most likely result happened in 2 of 4 predictions (50%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Lyon vs Angers: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 52.2% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 52.6% in the model.
Lyon are 5th on 11 points after 6 matches; Angers are 13th on 7. In 19 Ligue 1 meetings since 2015-16, Lyon won 14, Angers won 2 and 3 were drawn. They last met on 5 Apr 2026: Angers 0–0 Lyon. In their last 5 league matches Lyon won 2 and Angers won 2.
Home and away form
Lyon at home
5 played · 3W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 2.4 scored · 1.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Rennes · 4–0 (W)
- 4 Sept 2026 · Auxerre · 3–1 (W)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Le Havre · 1–1 (D)
- 17 May 2026 · Lens · 0–4 (L)
- 3 May 2026 · Rennes · 4–2 (W)
Angers away
5 played · 1W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Brest · 1–5 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Le Havre · 0–0 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Auxerre · 3–1 (W)
- 17 May 2026 · Brest · 1–1 (D)
- 3 May 2026 · Auxerre · 1–3 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Lyon vs Angers: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52.2%Under 47.8%
- Both teams score
- 47.4%No 52.6%
- Predicted goals
- 1.97 – 0.79Total 2.76 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 45% · 14%Lyon · Angers
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76.7% | 3/10 | 23.3% | 10/3 |
| 2.5 | 52.2% | 10/11 | 47.8% | 11/10 |
| 3.5 | 30.0% | 9/4 | 70.0% | 4/9 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Lyon to score 1.97 goals and Angers 0.79. Its ratings have Lyon scoring at 1.27 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 0.85 times, against 0.74 and 1.03 for Angers. How the model works.
Questions about Lyon vs Angers
Who is the favourite in Lyon vs Angers?
Our model's most likely result is Lyon win at 64.8%. Full probabilities: Lyon 64.8%, draw 21.5%, Angers 13.7%.
What is the most likely score in Lyon vs Angers?
2–0 is the single most likely score at 12.3%. The model expects 1.97 goals for Lyon and 0.79 for Angers.
Will Lyon vs Angers have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 52.2% and both teams to score 47.4%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-17
- Matches used
- 4,195
- Model version
- dc-v4-d88235abd8d7
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.