Ligue 1 · Gameweek 9
Lorient vs Brest Prediction
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Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Lorient 42.0%
Our Ligue 1 record: the most likely result happened in 2 of 4 predictions (50%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Lorient vs Brest: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 54.9% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 58.4% in the model.
Lorient are 10th on 8 points after 6 matches; Brest are 8th on 9. In 16 Ligue 1 meetings since 2010-11, Lorient won 7, Brest won 7 and 2 were drawn. They last met on 7 Feb 2026: Brest 2–0 Lorient. In their last 5 league matches Lorient won 2 and Brest won 2.
Home and away form
Lorient at home
5 played · 1W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Paris FC · 1–0 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Toulouse · 2–2 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Troyes · 1–2 (L)
- 17 May 2026 · Le Havre · 0–2 (L)
- 26 Apr 2026 · Strasbourg · 2–3 (L)
Brest away
5 played · 1W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 17 Oct 2026 · Lille · 1–1 (D)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Auxerre · 1–2 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Le Havre · 2–1 (W)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Le Mans · 2–2 (D)
- 10 May 2026 · Paris Saint-Germain · 0–1 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Lorient vs Brest: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54.9%Under 45.1%
- Both teams score
- 58.4%No 41.6%
- Predicted goals
- 1.55 – 1.33Total 2.88 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 26% · 21%Lorient · Brest
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78.7% | 2/7 | 21.3% | 7/2 |
| 2.5 | 54.9% | 5/6 | 45.1% | 6/5 |
| 3.5 | 32.5% | 85/40 | 67.5% | 1/2 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Lorient to score 1.55 goals and Brest 1.33. Its ratings have Lorient scoring at 0.99 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 0.99 times, against 1.09 and 1.03 for Brest. How the model works.
Questions about Lorient vs Brest
Who is the favourite in Lorient vs Brest?
Our model's most likely result is Lorient win at 42.0%. Full probabilities: Lorient 42.0%, draw 25.7%, Brest 32.3%.
What is the most likely score in Lorient vs Brest?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.1%. The model expects 1.55 goals for Lorient and 1.33 for Brest.
Will Lorient vs Brest have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 54.9% and both teams to score 58.4%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-17
- Matches used
- 4,195
- Model version
- dc-v4-d88235abd8d7
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.