Ligue 1 · Gameweek 9
Troyes vs Le Mans Prediction
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Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Le Mans 44.2%
Our Ligue 1 record: the most likely result happened in 2 of 4 predictions (50%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Troyes vs Le Mans: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 61.1% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 63.0% in the model.
Troyes are 17th on 4 points after 7 matches; Le Mans are 15th on 6. In 4 Ligue 1 meetings since 2005-06, Troyes won 0, Le Mans won 3 and 1 was drawn. They last met on 13 Jan 2007: Le Mans 2–0 Troyes. In their last 5 league matches Troyes won 0 and Le Mans won 1.
Home and away form
Troyes at home
4 played · 0W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 2.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 17 Oct 2026 · Lens · 1–3 (L)
- 11 Oct 2026 · Marseille · 0–2 (L)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Strasbourg · 2–6 (L)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Paris FC · 0–0 (D)
Le Mans away
3 played · 0W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.3 scored · 2.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Paris Saint-Germain · 1–3 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Nice · 1–1 (D)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Rennes · 2–3 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Troyes vs Le Mans: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61.1%Under 38.9%
- Both teams score
- 63.0%No 37.0%
- Predicted goals
- 1.43 – 1.73Total 3.16 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 18% · 24%Troyes · Le Mans
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82.8% | 1/5 | 17.2% | 5/1 |
| 2.5 | 61.1% | 8/13 | 38.9% | 13/8 |
| 3.5 | 38.8% | 13/8 | 61.2% | 8/13 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Troyes to score 1.43 goals and Le Mans 1.73. Its ratings have Troyes scoring at 0.80 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 1.32 times, against 1.06 and 1.19 for Le Mans. How the model works.
Questions about Troyes vs Le Mans
Who is the favourite in Troyes vs Le Mans?
Our model's most likely result is Le Mans win at 44.2%. Full probabilities: Troyes 31.6%, draw 24.2%, Le Mans 44.2%.
What is the most likely score in Troyes vs Le Mans?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.0%. The model expects 1.43 goals for Troyes and 1.73 for Le Mans.
Will Troyes vs Le Mans have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 61.1% and both teams to score 63.0%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-17
- Matches used
- 4,195
- Model version
- dc-v4-d88235abd8d7
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.