Ligue 1 · Gameweek 9
Strasbourg vs Auxerre Prediction
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Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Strasbourg 53.9%
Our Ligue 1 record: the most likely result happened in 4 of 8 predictions (50%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Strasbourg vs Auxerre: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 57.5% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 57.7% in the model.
Strasbourg are 13th on 7 points after 7 matches; Auxerre are 16th on 6. In 10 Ligue 1 meetings since 2005-06, Strasbourg won 5, Auxerre won 2 and 3 were drawn. They last met on 7 Mar 2026: Auxerre 0–0 Strasbourg. In their last 5 league matches Strasbourg won 1 and Auxerre won 2.
Home and away form
Strasbourg at home
4 played · 2W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 2.3 scored · 2.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 17 Oct 2026 · Paris Saint-Germain · 1–3 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Monaco · 1–1 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Lens · 2–1 (W)
- 17 May 2026 · Monaco · 5–4 (W)
Auxerre away
5 played · 1W · 0D · 4L
Goals per match: 1.6 scored · 3.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 11 Oct 2026 · Rennes · 1–4 (L)
- 4 Sept 2026 · Lyon · 1–3 (L)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Lens · 2–5 (L)
- 17 May 2026 · Lille · 2–0 (W)
- 25 Apr 2026 · Lyon · 2–3 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Strasbourg vs Auxerre: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57.5%Under 42.5%
- Both teams score
- 57.7%No 42.3%
- Predicted goals
- 1.86 – 1.13Total 2.99 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 32% · 16%Strasbourg · Auxerre
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80.4% | 1/4 | 19.6% | 4/1 |
| 2.5 | 57.5% | 8/11 | 42.5% | 11/8 |
| 3.5 | 35.1% | 15/8 | 64.9% | 8/15 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Strasbourg to score 1.86 goals and Auxerre 1.13. Its ratings have Strasbourg scoring at 1.21 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 0.99 times, against 0.92 and 1.02 for Auxerre. How the model works.
Questions about Strasbourg vs Auxerre
Who is the favourite in Strasbourg vs Auxerre?
Our model's most likely result is Strasbourg win at 53.9%. Full probabilities: Strasbourg 53.9%, draw 23.5%, Auxerre 22.6%.
What is the most likely score in Strasbourg vs Auxerre?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.0%. The model expects 1.86 goals for Strasbourg and 1.13 for Auxerre.
Will Strasbourg vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 57.5% and both teams to score 57.7%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-18
- Matches used
- 4,196
- Model version
- dc-v4-83b5c1564b67
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Ligue 1 season outlook →