Ligue 1 · Gameweek 9
Paris FC vs Monaco Prediction
Upcoming
Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Paris FC 38.2%
Our Ligue 1 record: the most likely result happened in 4 of 9 predictions (44%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Paris FC vs Monaco: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 57.2% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 60.4% in the model.
Paris FC are 2nd on 14 points after 7 matches; Monaco are 4th on 14. In 2 Ligue 1 meetings since 2025-26, Paris FC won 2, Monaco won 0 and none were drawn. They last met on 10 Apr 2026: Paris FC 4–1 Monaco. In their last 5 league matches Paris FC won 3 and Monaco won 2.
Home and away form
Paris FC at home
5 played · 4W · 1D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.2 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 18 Oct 2026 · Rennes · 4–3 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Strasbourg · 2–1 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Lyon · 0–0 (D)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Nice · 3–0 (W)
- 17 May 2026 · Paris Saint-Germain · 2–1 (W)
Monaco away
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.6 scored · 1.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 18 Oct 2026 · Lorient · 0–1 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Strasbourg · 1–1 (D)
- 4 Sept 2026 · Paris Saint-Germain · 2–1 (W)
- 23 Aug 2026 · Le Havre · 1–0 (W)
- 17 May 2026 · Strasbourg · 4–5 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Paris FC vs Monaco: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57.2%Under 42.8%
- Both teams score
- 60.4%No 39.6%
- Predicted goals
- 1.51 – 1.47Total 2.98 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 23% · 22%Paris FC · Monaco
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80.2% | 1/4 | 19.8% | 4/1 |
| 2.5 | 57.2% | 8/11 | 42.8% | 11/8 |
| 3.5 | 34.8% | 15/8 | 65.2% | 8/15 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Paris FC to score 1.51 goals and Monaco 1.47. Its ratings have Paris FC scoring at 1.10 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 0.90 times, against 1.31 and 0.91 for Monaco. How the model works.
Questions about Paris FC vs Monaco
Who is the favourite in Paris FC vs Monaco?
Our model's most likely result is Paris FC win at 38.2%. Full probabilities: Paris FC 38.2%, draw 25.2%, Monaco 36.6%.
What is the most likely score in Paris FC vs Monaco?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.7%. The model expects 1.51 goals for Paris FC and 1.47 for Monaco.
Will Paris FC vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 57.2% and both teams to score 60.4%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-18
- Matches used
- 4,199
- Model version
- dc-v4-6510d140008b
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Ligue 1 season outlook →