Ligue 1 · Gameweek 9
Marseille vs Toulouse Prediction
Upcoming
Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Marseille 53.9%
Our Ligue 1 record: the most likely result happened in 5 of 9 predictions (56%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Marseille vs Toulouse: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 60.1% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 59.8% in the model.
Marseille are 9th on 9 points after 7 matches; Toulouse are 11th on 9. In 38 Ligue 1 meetings since 2005-06, Marseille won 17, Toulouse won 4 and 17 were drawn. They last met on 7 Mar 2026: Toulouse 0–1 Marseille. In their last 5 league matches Marseille won 2 and Toulouse won 2.
Home and away form
Marseille at home
4 played · 2W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 2.5 scored · 1.5 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · Paris Saint-Germain · 1–2 (L)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Paris FC · 2–3 (L)
- 21 Aug 2026 · Strasbourg · 4–0 (W)
- 17 May 2026 · Rennes · 3–1 (W)
Toulouse away
5 played · 1W · 4D · 0L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 16 Oct 2026 · Le Mans · 3–0 (W)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Monaco · 2–2 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Lorient · 2–2 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Brest · 2–2 (D)
- 17 May 2026 · Nantes · 0–0 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Marseille vs Toulouse: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60.1%Under 39.9%
- Both teams score
- 59.8%No 40.2%
- Predicted goals
- 1.92 – 1.19Total 3.11 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 30% · 15%Marseille · Toulouse
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82.0% | 2/9 | 18.0% | 9/2 |
| 2.5 | 60.1% | 4/6 | 39.9% | 6/4 |
| 3.5 | 37.7% | 13/8 | 62.3% | 8/13 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Marseille to score 1.92 goals and Toulouse 1.19. Its ratings have Marseille scoring at 1.36 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 0.91 times, against 1.05 and 0.93 for Toulouse. How the model works.
Questions about Marseille vs Toulouse
Who is the favourite in Marseille vs Toulouse?
Our model's most likely result is Marseille win at 53.9%. Full probabilities: Marseille 53.9%, draw 22.9%, Toulouse 23.2%.
What is the most likely score in Marseille vs Toulouse?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 10.6%. The model expects 1.92 goals for Marseille and 1.19 for Toulouse.
Will Marseille vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 60.1% and both teams to score 59.8%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-18
- Matches used
- 4,200
- Model version
- dc-v4-cd41d73a6829
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Ligue 1 season outlook →