La Liga · Gameweek 9
Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Atletico Madrid 48.2%
Prediction probabilities
Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 50.0% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 53.0% in the model.
Espanyol are 12th on 8 points after 8 matches; Atletico Madrid are 2nd on 19. In 8 La Liga meetings since 2021-22, Espanyol won 1, Atletico Madrid won 3 and 4 were drawn. They last met on 21 Feb 2026: Atletico Madrid 4–2 Espanyol. In their last 5 league matches Espanyol won 1 and Atletico Madrid won 4.
Home and away form
Espanyol at home
5 played · 1W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 18 Sept 2026 · Elche · 1–3 (L)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Sevilla · 1–1 (D)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Real Madrid · 1–2 (L)
- 16 Aug 2026 · Levante · 3–0 (W)
- 23 May 2026 · Real Sociedad · 1–1 (D)
Atletico Madrid away
5 played · 3W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Alaves · 2–1 (W)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Real Sociedad · 3–0 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Athletic Club · 0–3 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Sevilla · 3–1 (W)
- 24 May 2026 · Villarreal · 1–5 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50.0%Under 50.0%
- Both teams score
- 53.0%No 47.0%
- Predicted goals
- 1.10 – 1.57Total 2.67 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 21% · 33%Espanyol · Atletico Madrid
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74.8% | 25.2% |
| 2.5 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| 3.5 | 28.0% | 72.0% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Espanyol to score 1.10 goals and Atletico Madrid 1.57. Its ratings have Espanyol scoring at 0.94 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 1.01 times, against 1.39 and 0.78 for Atletico Madrid. How the model works.
Questions about Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid
Who is the favourite in Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid?
Our model's most likely result is Atletico Madrid win at 48.2%. Full probabilities: Espanyol 26.3%, draw 25.5%, Atletico Madrid 48.2%.
What is the most likely score in Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.1%. The model expects 1.10 goals for Espanyol and 1.57 for Atletico Madrid.
Will Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 50.0% and both teams to score 53.0%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,358
- Model version
- dc-v4-72400b7e955d
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.