La Liga · Gameweek 9
Villarreal vs Elche Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Villarreal 65.7%
Prediction probabilities
Villarreal vs Elche: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 66.6% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 59.8% in the model.
Villarreal are 11th on 8 points after 8 matches; Elche are 18th on 6. In 8 La Liga meetings since 2020-21, Villarreal won 4, Elche won 2 and 2 were drawn. They last met on 8 Mar 2026: Villarreal 2–1 Elche. In their last 5 league matches Villarreal won 2 and Elche won 1.
Home and away form
Villarreal at home
4 played · 2W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 2.8 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · Levante · 3–1 (W)
- 14 Sept 2026 · Real Betis · 1–2 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Deportivo La Coruna · 2–3 (L)
- 24 May 2026 · Atletico Madrid · 5–1 (W)
Elche away
5 played · 1W · 3D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.6 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 18 Sept 2026 · Espanyol · 3–1 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Athletic Club · 1–1 (D)
- 28 Aug 2026 · Racing Santander · 2–3 (L)
- 17 Aug 2026 · Deportivo La Coruna · 1–1 (D)
- 23 May 2026 · Girona · 1–1 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66.6%Under 33.4%
- Both teams score
- 59.8%No 40.2%
- Predicted goals
- 2.35 – 1.08Total 3.43 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 34% · 10%Villarreal · Elche
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85.8% | 14.2% |
| 2.5 | 66.6% | 33.4% |
| 3.5 | 44.8% | 55.2% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Villarreal to score 2.35 goals and Elche 1.08. Its ratings have Villarreal scoring at 1.41 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 0.95 times, against 1.01 and 1.11 for Elche. How the model works.
Questions about Villarreal vs Elche
Who is the favourite in Villarreal vs Elche?
Our model's most likely result is Villarreal win at 65.7%. Full probabilities: Villarreal 65.7%, draw 18.6%, Elche 15.7%.
What is the most likely score in Villarreal vs Elche?
2–1 is the single most likely score at 9.7%. The model expects 2.35 goals for Villarreal and 1.08 for Elche.
Will Villarreal vs Elche have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 66.6% and both teams to score 59.8%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,358
- Model version
- dc-v4-72400b7e955d
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.