La Liga · Gameweek 9
Valencia vs Athletic Club Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Valencia 36.9%
1 La Liga prediction published before kickoff and never edited; results are scored as matches are played. See every prediction ›
Valencia vs Athletic Club: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 59.9% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 53.4% in the model.
Valencia are 19th on 5 points after 8 matches; Athletic Club are 10th on 8. In 42 La Liga meetings since 2005-06, Valencia won 15, Athletic Club won 13 and 14 were drawn. They last met on 10 May 2026: Athletic Club 0–1 Valencia. In their last 5 league matches Valencia won 1 and Athletic Club won 2.
Home and away form
Valencia at home
5 played · 1W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · Real Sociedad · 2–3 (L)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Barcelona · 0–5 (L)
- 25 Aug 2026 · Real Betis · 0–1 (L)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Celta Vigo · 0–0 (D)
- 23 May 2026 · Barcelona · 3–1 (W)
Athletic Club away
4 played · 1W · 0D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 30 Aug 2026 · Celta Vigo · 2–0 (W)
- 27 Aug 2026 · Barcelona · 0–2 (L)
- 23 May 2026 · Real Madrid · 2–4 (L)
- 13 May 2026 · Espanyol · 0–2 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 40.1%Under 59.9%
- Both teams score
- 46.6%No 53.4%
- Predicted goals
- 1.17 – 1.12Total 2.29 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 33% · 31%Valencia · Athletic Club
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66.9% | 33.1% |
| 2.5 | 40.1% | 59.9% |
| 3.5 | 19.8% | 80.2% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Valencia to score 1.17 goals and Athletic Club 1.12. Its ratings have Valencia scoring at 0.92 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 1.00 times, against 1.01 and 0.85 for Athletic Club. How the model works.
Questions about Valencia vs Athletic Club
Who is the favourite in Valencia vs Athletic Club?
Our model's most likely result is Valencia win at 36.9%. Full probabilities: Valencia 36.9%, draw 28.9%, Athletic Club 34.2%.
What is the most likely score in Valencia vs Athletic Club?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.5%. The model expects 1.17 goals for Valencia and 1.12 for Athletic Club.
Will Valencia vs Athletic Club have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 40.1% and both teams to score 46.6%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-15
- Matches used
- 4,563
- Model version
- dc-v4-ef92f561fea7
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.