La Liga · Gameweek 9
Osasuna vs Racing Santander Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Osasuna 57.9%
Prediction probabilities
Osasuna vs Racing Santander: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 70.8% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 67.2% in the model.
Osasuna are 16th on 8 points after 8 matches; Racing Santander are 15th on 8. In their last 5 league matches Osasuna won 0 and Racing Santander won 1.
Home and away form
Osasuna at home
5 played · 1W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 0.6 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Rayo Vallecano · 1–1 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Espanyol · 0–2 (L)
- 31 Aug 2026 · Getafe · 1–0 (W)
- 24 Aug 2026 · Levante · 0–0 (D)
- 17 May 2026 · Espanyol · 1–2 (L)
Racing Santander away
4 played · 0W · 0D · 4L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 4.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Celta Vigo · 0–5 (L)
- 16 Sept 2026 · Barcelona · 2–7 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Rayo Vallecano · 2–3 (L)
- 23 Aug 2026 · Getafe · 0–1 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 70.8%Under 29.2%
- Both teams score
- 67.2%No 32.8%
- Predicted goals
- 2.29 – 1.37Total 3.66 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 25% · 10%Osasuna · Racing Santander
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88.2% | 11.8% |
| 2.5 | 70.8% | 29.2% |
| 3.5 | 49.8% | 50.2% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Osasuna to score 2.29 goals and Racing Santander 1.37. Its ratings have Osasuna scoring at 0.95 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 1.04 times, against 1.18 and 1.62 for Racing Santander. How the model works.
Questions about Osasuna vs Racing Santander
Who is the favourite in Osasuna vs Racing Santander?
Our model's most likely result is Osasuna win at 57.9%. Full probabilities: Osasuna 57.9%, draw 19.9%, Racing Santander 22.2%.
What is the most likely score in Osasuna vs Racing Santander?
2–1 is the single most likely score at 9.2%. The model expects 2.29 goals for Osasuna and 1.37 for Racing Santander.
Will Osasuna vs Racing Santander have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 70.8% and both teams to score 67.2%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,358
- Model version
- dc-v4-72400b7e955d
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.