La Liga · Gameweek 9
Celta Vigo vs Alaves Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Celta Vigo 50.0%
Prediction probabilities
Celta Vigo vs Alaves: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 55.4% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 52.0% in the model.
Celta Vigo are 9th on 8 points after 8 matches; Alaves are 7th on 11. In 10 La Liga meetings since 2020-21, Celta Vigo won 6, Alaves won 2 and 2 were drawn. They last met on 22 Mar 2026: Celta Vigo 3–4 Alaves. In their last 5 league matches Celta Vigo won 1 and Alaves won 1.
Home and away form
Celta Vigo at home
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.6 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Racing Santander · 5–0 (W)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Malaga · 1–1 (D)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Athletic Club · 0–2 (L)
- 27 Aug 2026 · Osasuna · 1–2 (L)
- 23 May 2026 · Sevilla · 1–0 (W)
Alaves away
4 played · 1W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 0.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Athletic Club · 0–0 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Racing Santander · 1–2 (L)
- 20 Aug 2026 · Rayo Vallecano · 1–1 (D)
- 17 May 2026 · Real Oviedo · 1–0 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44.6%Under 55.4%
- Both teams score
- 48.0%No 52.0%
- Predicted goals
- 1.51 – 0.95Total 2.46 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 39% · 22%Celta Vigo · Alaves
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70.6% | 29.4% |
| 2.5 | 44.6% | 55.4% |
| 3.5 | 23.4% | 76.6% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Celta Vigo to score 1.51 goals and Alaves 0.95. Its ratings have Celta Vigo scoring at 1.06 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 0.92 times, against 0.93 and 0.95 for Alaves. How the model works.
Questions about Celta Vigo vs Alaves
Who is the favourite in Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
Our model's most likely result is Celta Vigo win at 50.0%. Full probabilities: Celta Vigo 50.0%, draw 26.4%, Alaves 23.6%.
What is the most likely score in Celta Vigo vs Alaves?
1–0 is the single most likely score at 12.7%. The model expects 1.51 goals for Celta Vigo and 0.95 for Alaves.
Will Celta Vigo vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 44.6% and both teams to score 48.0%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,358
- Model version
- dc-v4-72400b7e955d
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.