La Liga · Gameweek 9
Malaga vs Real Sociedad Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Real Sociedad 40.8%
Prediction probabilities
Malaga vs Real Sociedad: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 57.9% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 52.0% in the model.
Malaga are 20th on 4 points after 8 matches; Real Sociedad are 6th on 13. In their last 5 league matches Malaga won 0 and Real Sociedad won 3.
Home and away form
Malaga at home
4 played · 0W · 3D · 1L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 1.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 9 Oct 2026 · Espanyol · 1–1 (D)
- 17 Sept 2026 · Villarreal · 1–3 (L)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Levante · 0–0 (D)
- 24 Aug 2026 · Deportivo La Coruna · 1–1 (D)
Real Sociedad away
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.6 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · Valencia · 3–2 (W)
- 7 Sept 2026 · Elche · 3–2 (W)
- 26 Aug 2026 · Real Madrid · 1–4 (L)
- 21 Aug 2026 · Real Betis · 0–1 (L)
- 23 May 2026 · Espanyol · 1–1 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42.1%Under 57.9%
- Both teams score
- 48.0%No 52.0%
- Predicted goals
- 1.08 – 1.28Total 2.37 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 28% · 34%Malaga · Real Sociedad
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68.6% | 31.4% |
| 2.5 | 42.1% | 57.9% |
| 3.5 | 21.4% | 78.6% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Malaga to score 1.08 goals and Real Sociedad 1.28. Its ratings have Malaga scoring at 0.71 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 1.04 times, against 1.10 and 1.02 for Real Sociedad. How the model works.
Questions about Malaga vs Real Sociedad
Who is the favourite in Malaga vs Real Sociedad?
Our model's most likely result is Real Sociedad win at 40.8%. Full probabilities: Malaga 31.1%, draw 28.1%, Real Sociedad 40.8%.
What is the most likely score in Malaga vs Real Sociedad?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.2%. The model expects 1.08 goals for Malaga and 1.28 for Real Sociedad.
Will Malaga vs Real Sociedad have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 42.1% and both teams to score 48.0%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,358
- Model version
- dc-v4-72400b7e955d
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.