La Liga · Gameweek 9
Real Madrid vs Sevilla Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Real Madrid 73.8%
Prediction probabilities
Real Madrid vs Sevilla: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 63.3% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 50.4% in the model.
Real Madrid are 4th on 18 points after 8 matches; Sevilla are 5th on 14. In 12 La Liga meetings since 2020-21, Real Madrid won 10, Sevilla won 0 and 2 were drawn. They last met on 17 May 2026: Sevilla 0–1 Real Madrid. In their last 5 league matches Real Madrid won 3 and Sevilla won 2.
Home and away form
Real Madrid at home
5 played · 5W · 0D · 0L
Goals per match: 3.4 scored · 0.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Villarreal · 1–0 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Rayo Vallecano · 4–1 (W)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Malaga · 4–0 (W)
- 26 Aug 2026 · Real Sociedad · 4–1 (W)
- 23 May 2026 · Athletic Club · 4–2 (W)
Sevilla away
5 played · 2W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.6 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 12 Oct 2026 · Levante · 3–3 (D)
- 16 Sept 2026 · Deportivo La Coruna · 1–0 (W)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Espanyol · 1–1 (D)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Athletic Club · 3–1 (W)
- 23 May 2026 · Celta Vigo · 0–1 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63.3%Under 36.7%
- Both teams score
- 50.4%No 49.6%
- Predicted goals
- 2.46 – 0.80Total 3.26 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 45% · 9%Real Madrid · Sevilla
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83.8% | 16.2% |
| 2.5 | 63.3% | 36.7% |
| 3.5 | 41.1% | 58.9% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Real Madrid to score 2.46 goals and Sevilla 0.80. Its ratings have Real Madrid scoring at 1.61 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 0.70 times, against 1.01 and 1.02 for Sevilla. How the model works.
Questions about Real Madrid vs Sevilla
Who is the favourite in Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
Our model's most likely result is Real Madrid win at 73.8%. Full probabilities: Real Madrid 73.8%, draw 16.2%, Sevilla 10.0%.
What is the most likely score in Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
2–0 is the single most likely score at 11.6%. The model expects 2.46 goals for Real Madrid and 0.80 for Sevilla.
Will Real Madrid vs Sevilla have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 63.3% and both teams to score 50.4%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,358
- Model version
- dc-v4-72400b7e955d
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.