La Liga · Gameweek 9
Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Getafe 38.2%
Prediction probabilities
Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 74.2% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 66.0% in the model.
Getafe are 14th on 8 points after 8 matches; Rayo Vallecano are 13th on 8. In 10 La Liga meetings since 2021-22, Getafe won 0, Rayo Vallecano won 4 and 6 were drawn. They last met on 3 May 2026: Getafe 0–2 Rayo Vallecano. In their last 5 league matches Getafe won 1 and Rayo Vallecano won 2.
Home and away form
Getafe at home
5 played · 3W · 2D · 0L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 0.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · Malaga · 1–0 (W)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Deportivo La Coruna · 1–1 (D)
- 7 Sept 2026 · Celta Vigo · 1–1 (D)
- 23 Aug 2026 · Racing Santander · 1–0 (W)
- 23 May 2026 · Osasuna · 1–0 (W)
Rayo Vallecano away
5 played · 1W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 2.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Osasuna · 1–1 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Real Madrid · 1–4 (L)
- 31 Aug 2026 · Barcelona · 2–5 (L)
- 15 Aug 2026 · Sevilla · 1–2 (L)
- 23 May 2026 · Alaves · 2–1 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 25.8%Under 74.2%
- Both teams score
- 34.0%No 66.0%
- Predicted goals
- 0.97 – 0.79Total 1.76 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 45% · 38%Getafe · Rayo Vallecano
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| 2.5 | 25.8% | 74.2% |
| 3.5 | 10.2% | 89.8% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Getafe to score 0.97 goals and Rayo Vallecano 0.79. Its ratings have Getafe scoring at 0.70 times the model's La Liga average and conceding at 0.78 times, against 0.90 and 0.93 for Rayo Vallecano. How the model works.
Questions about Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano
Who is the favourite in Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our model's most likely result is Getafe win at 38.2%. Full probabilities: Getafe 38.2%, draw 33.6%, Rayo Vallecano 28.2%.
What is the most likely score in Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano?
0–0 is the single most likely score at 17.4%. The model expects 0.97 goals for Getafe and 0.79 for Rayo Vallecano.
Will Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 25.8% and both teams to score 34.0%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,358
- Model version
- dc-v4-72400b7e955d
- Data source
- Finished La Liga scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.